Spread Picks

Round One Trades (P/L = 16.87pts)

Buy K J Choi over Jarmo Sandelin 18H MB at 7 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 28, Profit 15.75 pts)

High priced buy here, but Sandelin is nowhere near Choi's class and is happily opposed after shooting two 75's to miss the cut at the British Masters. Jarmo was Top 20 at the Canarias Open in April but that was his first top 20 since last July. His tour record is no better with a 24th place in 02' at Ta Shee in Taiwan by far and away his best result on tour since a good 01' when he had a win and a 9th place to show for his efforts. Choi has had a steady year in much better company in the States, however his Asian record is good too, an average FP of 17 since 1999 in 9 events suggests he handles his old stomping ground well.

Sell Jyoti Randhawa over Paul McGinley 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U -16, Profit 12 pts)

Purely a false favourite here, so we have value off a straight start on McGinley. A better finish last week after a downturn in form after his 2nd in Dubai means we can confidently back him again. 3 Top 20's in his last 5 Asian Tour events is acceptable form against an opponent with a great Tour record. Randhawa though has failed to sparkle in 3 events in Japan since his last Asian Tour appearance with a 25th place last week being the best return. McGinley's 14th at the Forest of Arden suggests he is worthy of being favourite here.

Buy Henrik Nystrom over Amandeep Johl 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U -13, Profit -10.88 pts)

Johl's record on the Asian Tour is nothing spectacular with two Top 10's in the last year mixed with 8 finishes outwith the Top 50. He is up against Nystrom who has posted a 7th two weeks ago in a Euro Challenge Tour event and a 33rd in Madeira. Nothing startling of course but when you look at Nystrom's record on the Asian Tour you find a completely different set of results. 15th in the Hong Kong Open in December was preceded by 6 Top 25 places in a row since 2001. His average round score in those 7 events was 69.1 which if equalled may be enough to beat Johl tomorrow.

Round Two Trades (P/L = -10.5pts)

Buy Simon Yates over Eddie Lee 18H MB at 1.5 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U -19, Profit -15.38 pts)

Yates is a Scot living in Thailand who has played this tour for years. He has a great record with 8 top 10's in the period time Lee has posted one. They are matched in price probably because Yates shot 75 yesterday and could miss the weekend. I would suggest though that for an 18H match that is in our favour not against us, as Yates isn't too far off the cut line and knows what he needs to do. Lee on the other hand is just inside it and may want to maintain that position via safe rather than adventurous play.

Buy Henrik Nystrom over Amandeep Johl 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit 8.63 pts)

John won this by one yesterday but it wasn't a case of the poorer player having a good day but the more fancied one having a bad. In the exact same position as Yates, Nystrom needs to kick on to keep his cut making record up on this tour. We are paying the same price which is acceptable even although we lost
yesterday.

Buy KJ Choi over Jarmo Sandelin 18H MB at 9 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts (M/U 22, Profit 9.75 pts)

Same bet as yesterday, playing up a player who made us over 15pts. The price is higher but is still within the range we can bet up to.

Sell Simon Dyson over Charlie Wi 18H MB at 4 with Cantor Sports for 0.75 pts. (M/U 22, Profit -13.5 pts)

Dyson is the first round leader and has been given a quote just a little too high based purely on R1 scoring.
Wi shot 73 so is by no means out of it and is stronger than Dyson on this tour with Dyson having two Top 10's and 6 missed cuts in 15 visits in the last four seasons. Wi has an equivalent record of 7 top 10's incl. 4 wins and 9 missed cuts though from more events (32)

Round Three Trades (P/L = 21 Pts)

Sell Greg Norman over Adam Groom 18H MB at 3 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts. (M/U -25, Norman DQ, Profit 21 pts)

This one has been priced purely on "recognition". No one knows Groom and Norman is high on the list of most peoples favourite golfers so it is easy for the firms to price knowing that punters may latch on to the hope of a Norman resurgence. Groom though should be favourite here by the same price Norman is. Two 3rd's on this tour in his last 5 events compares favourably with Norman who hardly plays at all. His 04' record is 68/dq/81/mc/mc. This is easily his best week so far but it is not as good as Groom's even although the standard of competition has been greater in Normans' events. Available at 2 with Sporting Index, this is the best value trade of the week so far.

Round Four Trades (P/L = 10.5 Pts)

Sell Sam Walker over Paul Eales 18H MB at 1 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U -13, Profit 10.5 pts)

Can't understand Walker being favourite here. Eales has a 2004 record of two Top 10's in S Africa and a 9th in Portugal. Walker has a 5th and 16th earlier in the year but noticeably has missed his last two cuts including a MC on the Challenge Tour. Eales should be 1-4 over not 1-4 underdog.

Summary: Good week in which we carried a lot of luck too. Norman was ahead of Groom on 17 before being disqualified so you just have to accept these breaks as there will no doubt be a point that the reverse happens.

Profit on the week = 37.87 pts.

Asian PGA Tour

Tournament Trade:

Buy Steven O'Hara FP at 37 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts
A strange choice for a finishing position quote. Has very little form to his name on the European Tour (only one FP makeup of under 33 in 10 events this season with an average of around 45) and I see little reason why he'll suddenly come up with something playing far away in China. Even on the Challenge Tour last season his average spread finishing position was only about 30. OK, this isn't the strongest event on the calendar but that is balanced by his lack of experience of playing in Asia. Many of the players just 2 or 3 points lower are near-veterans of these conditions and are simply much better golfers at this stage too.
Result:
O'Hara MC, MU 50, Profit 6.5 pts