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Tipster:
Andy
Caltex Masters
Tournament Trades
Sell Michael Campbell over Colin Montgomerie 72H MB
at 1 with Cantor Sports for
0.5 pts (M/U -13, Profit 7 pts)
Sell Thongchai Jaidee over Raphael Jacquelin 72H MB
at 1 with Cantor Sports for
0.5 pts (M/U 18, Profit -8.5 pts)
In both cases you could
make an argument for either player so it seems a little strange that
Cantor go as high as a point difference. This being the case both
match-ups are worthy of an interest at minimum stakes. Monty's tour
record is excellent, his worst position is 16th in 5 attempts. Campbell
meanwhile has similar records with 21st his worst in 8. Its arguably a
toss of the coin match. Jacquelin has a 4th and very little else on this
tour but at least that was this year. The other poor shows being at
least 2 years past now. Jaidee is from this tour and is a top player but
I would argue that Jacquelin is a better player and its only the
location that evens them up. Not though enough to go Jaidee 1 shot over
on a 72H match.
Sell Peter Fowler
FP at 36 with
Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts
(M/U 50, Profit -7 pts)
Scratch the surface and
this event has no real depth of quality. Therefore, 36 seems too high
for a proven player even although his Asian PGA Tour record is actually
quite desperate. With a 49th best place in the last 3 years (3 attempts)
Fowler has a lot to do to convince me that this is a great bet but at
the price, and the known downside of 7 points, I cant ignore it.
Sell Marcus Fraser FP at 31 with
Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. (M/U 50, Profit
-9.5 pts)
Fraser has two top 20's on
this tour this year and is an improving player. Only Sporting Index have
priced this player which seems strange, but I feel they may have priced
him just a little too high.
Sell Wade Ormsby FP at
34 with
Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. (M/U 50, Profit
-8pts)
Similar story, an improving
player, a top 30 on this tour this year and at a price a couple of
points too high. Since then he has had two further Top 30's to suggest
he is in a little form and in a poor quality field is worth a punt to
try and make it 4 from 4.
Round One Trades
Sell Simon Yates over Barry Lane 18H MB at 0 with
Spreadex for 0.75 pts.
(M/U 13, Profit -9.75pts)
Yates, although Scottish, has played the vast majority
of his career in Asia. For that reason Spreadex have, I think,
over-estimated the advantage that will bring Yates. Lane is a better
player and would be priced roughly 2-5 if this was in Europe. At the
odds it's quite a good trade. Yates has missed his last two cuts, one on
this tour, whereas Lane has a top 30 to go with a MC in the two Middle
East events.
Buy Anders Hansen over Arjun Singh 18H MB at 8
with Spreadex for 0.75 pts.
(M/U -28, Profit -27pts)
A high priced buy but its still probably just a bit too
low. Singh recently has missed 4 cuts from 5 on this tour and it is
fifteen events since he last posted a Top 10. Hansen, meanwhile, has had
a 13th place on this tour a few weeks back, two top 10's in S. Africa in
January and was 14th this past weekend in Doha.
Sell David Carter over
David Park 18H MB at 0 with
Sporting Index for 0.75 pts (M/U -22,
Profit 16.5pts)
Purely on price this one,
Park should be favourite by a couple of strokes so is worth a punt in
what is quite a difficult set of prices on R1 to find any value.
Round Two Trades
Buy Anders Hansen over
Arjun Singh 18H MB at 7 with
Spreadex for
0.75pts (M/U 25, Profit 13.5pts)
Sell Simon Yates over Barry Lane 18H MB at 0 with
Spreadex
for 0.75 pts. (M/U 34, Profit 25.5pts)
Playing up two losers from yesterday, the Yates bet was disappointing
but as both players were under par we just didn't get the breaks.
However, the Hansen bet was far more annoying in that not only did he
under perform, but Singh put in his best performance for some while at
the same time to leave us with a large loss. It seems worthy to give
both bets another chance at the same or slightly better prices than
yesterday.
Sell Peter O' Malley over Soren Kjeldsen 18H MB at 1 with
Spreadex
for 0.75pts
(M/U -16, Profit 13.75pts)
This was priced at 0-3 yesterday and was just short of being a
recommendation. With the MU being 13, Spreadex now offer a point higher
on POM and it now becomes value at 1-4
Buy Soren Kjeldsen over Charlie Wi 18H MB at 0 for
Spreadex
0.75pts (Spread Free) (M/U 19, Profit
14.25pts)
Once again, using the spread free offer to get an even better price than
normal. Kjeldsen was +1 yesterday so needs to work a little to get in
for the weekend whereas Wi was tied
with O Malley at level. Hopefully Soren can push on and beat both
players in Round 2.
Summary:
Profit 20.75 pts.
Really
disappointing results with the FP's, especially Fowler who led on day 1.
The 72H results were very different outcomes and finally the 18H bets
were on the whole excellent. A pity that Anders Hansen lost so heavily
Thursday as it made a significant dent in the end result.
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