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Johnnie Walker Classic
Bet 1 - Buy Trevor Immelman FP at 22 with
Spreadex for 0.5 pts. M/U 37, Profit
7.5pts
Immelman is arguably the most in-form player on the planet just now but
even allowing for this, 22 is just too low and has to be traded at Spreadex.
His recent successes have been in his native land, and trips to this tour
have resulted in a 3rd place in Taiwan in 2002 and a 52nd place on this
course in 2000. His FP quote would be fair in S Africa but here it is just
the good side of value and I suggest taking him on.
Bet 2 - Buy C Montgomerie over Iain Poulter 72H MB at 0.75 with
Sporting Index for 1 pt. M/U -1, Profit -1.75pts
It's a choice bet at 0.75 for this pair on their "My Matchmakers"
service, and the value is siding with
Monty. Although in the twilight of his career there were signs in S Africa
of a return to form. 16th place included a horrendous 78, but his other 3
rounds produced solid golf. Poulter is very much a hit and miss player so is
quite a risky proposition on the spreads. A deciding factor in the bet is
their Asian PGA Tour record. Monty has a record of two wins and a third in
three attempts, Poulter has no top 20's in three attempts which includes a
41st on this course.
Bet 3 - Buy Anders Hansen FP at 30 with
Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. M/U 15.5, Profit -7.25pts
Anders is just off of two top 10's on the Sunshine tour, but to me 30 is
too low considering Hansen's record generally and on this tour in
particular. He has equalled his 2003 record for top 10's already but that,
rather than suggesting an upturn in his career, is more an indication of his
true standing in the game. A player who averaged 1 in 3 M/C on tour last
year, and on that info 30 is too low even accounting for recent form which
of course was on a different continent.
Bet 4 - Sell Thongchai Jaidee FP at 33 with
Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U 6.5, Profit 13.25pts
Having had a torrid time with FP sells in the early weeks of the season i
was reluctant to go for too many this week. However, this one just stands
out from the crowd. On this tour Jaidee averages Top 15 for FP's. OK, that
is usually in events bereft of Euro tour players and the bigger name
Australasians. Still, even with this info 33 is high. 8th last week in this
country in the Thailand Open, and covering an FP Make up of 33 in each of
his last 9 events (7 top 10's), Jaidee is worth the risk.
Bet
5 - Sell Greg Owen over Barry Lane 18H MB at 1 with
Cantor Sport
for 0.5 pts. M/U 13, Profit -6pts.
Siding here with the player who should be favourite in this match. Lane has
played 5 events on this tour in the last 3 years and has finishes of
41/18/21/26/25, (the latter being the Hong Kong Open pre-christmas).
Owen hasn't played here since 1999 when he finished 43rd in the Malaysian
Open. I would have Lane favourite by 2-5 and not the other way round.
(Originally posted at 2 but this price was cut before posting here)
Bet 6 - Buy Ernie Els
over Ben Curtis 18H MB at 12 with
Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U -16, Profit -14pts
Imagine Curtis didn't win the Open, what price Els over Curtis then.
Curtis has been continually priced in relation to one week in Kent much more
than on his full known form and ability. This is a very fair price to take
to get with the short priced favourite who is just off a win on the US tour.
Curtis finished last by 3 strokes in the season opening Mercedes shooting
73/80/70/74 then came out in the Sony and missed the cut. His current form
is so different from Els's that buying Els at a price where any win from 1
stroke upwards makes a profit is worth taking. (Note the price is available
at all firms bar Sportspread, who are 10-13)
>>>>Disappointing day on the two 18 Holers, especially the Els bet, with
Curtis coming back in 31 after a poor start. Fair play to him but Els was
very average today.
Post Round 1 Trades
Bet
7 - Sell Scott Gardiner over Jean Remesy 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.5
pts. M/U -16, Profit 8pts
Playing up on a quirk here. Gardiner has shot in the 60s 19 times in the 1st
round in the last 8 seasons. He has then went on and failed to break 70 17 times in
the following round, and has yet to actually better the previous days score. Remesy has fair Asian PGA Tour form, only missing one cut in 6, and shot a
respectable 70 yesterday. This one has to be played given Gardiner's R2
stats.
Bet
8 - Buy Nick Faldo FP at 19 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts.
M/U 15.5, Profit -1.75pts
Nothing personally against Faldo's chances, but this is purely being traded
on his price and the effects of the draw. Faldo shot an excellent 65 today
in the cooler conditions in the morning and it was noticable that very few
players made any in-roads into the top end of the leaderboard later on.
By the end of R2 Faldo could easily be back in the pack so 19 is pretty low
considering we have a full 54 holes to go.
Bet 9 - Buy Ernie Els over Ben Curtis 18H MB at
8 with IG Sport for
0.5 pts. M/U 28, Profit 10pts.
If we were happy to back at 12 we should be at 8
even allowing for the fact the first bet lost. Curtis has produced easily
his best round of the year so far but Els is still a far better player than
Curtis and one round is not going to change that philosophy.
Summary
A winning week on this tour as only Hansen of the
FP bets was a disappointment. A great inward 9 on Sunday seen him get up the
leaderboard when he could easily have been a winning bet. 18 Holers were
average and the Monty/Poulter bet was an acceptable finish considering after
day 1, Monty was 7 behind and looking at a possible missed cut. Weekly
Profit = 8pts
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