BMW Asian Open

Finishing Positions (0.5 Pt Stakes)

Final Summary: The saying in Spread Betting is "The worst that can happen is the worst that can happen". Well bar Soren Hansen and possibly bar a very little amount Anders Hansen, we suffered that possibility this week. If things don't improve in the States we are looking at losing half of the bank we have built up this season and will have to start afresh next week but we will get it back. Loss 61.75 Pts

Round Three (Summary: Not much better situation now, S Hansen looks like being our only winner, A Hansen could do anything in R4 as he is roughly the position we sold at and we need Faldo to have a good R4 to get to at least our trading price.)

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: Groundhog day for us today as a few of the players we have an interest in finish +1 to fail to make the weekend. McGinley was the worst though as he had got himself up to -2 then imploded in the last 4 holes including missing a 5ft putt to get in on 18. The positives are the two Hansen's and Faldo but they really need to shoot low over the weekend to stop this being a disaster.

Sell Nick Faldo at 39 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 5.5 Pts
Sell Barry Lane at 40 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 5 Pts
Sell Anders Hansen at 25 with Spreadex M/U 48.5, Loss 11.75 Pts
Sell Paul McGinley at 40.5 (spread free) with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 4.75 Pts
We already have an interest in these four players but at the prices I think we should go in again. It is a risk and I accept that we need a far better R2 from two of them than they produced in R1 but if they all get in (and Lane and McGinley are within 2 shots of doing so) then we will be in a fairly healthy position tomorrow to trade our way through the weekend. It brings the total points up to over 380 for 11 plays so we need a few to finish up the leaderboard.

Pre Round One Trades. (Summary: The two Hansen's are our best score on the day in which McGinley, Fraser and Lane played poorly on the greens and Rumford just played poorly all round. At this point Rumford is almost certain to M/U at 50 but I am quietly hopeful that all others will get into the weekend and with some aggressive staking through R2-R4 we could have a good weekend albeit at an increased risk.)

Sell Barry Lane at 33 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 8.5 Pts
Its the "usual suspects" that we trade on this tour but the form repeated by these players just can't be ignored. Whereas, these prices would not appeal on mainland Europe, mid to high 30s in Asia is worthy of the risk. Lane has made his last 12 cuts on this tour after taking some time to acclimatise. Nine Top 25's in those 12 suggest Lane has a liking for the Far East, although last weeks result was a poor 48th after a 75 in R4. He has though now had a week here and I think anyone who played last week will have a slight advantage than players arriving here for this event. Four Top 25's in seven 2005 events with no missed cuts is also a positive for Lane.

Sell Nick Faldo at 40 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 5 Pts
Faldo got the worse of the weather last week and was +4 at the suspension. He finished his final 28 holes in 4 under par but the handicap of the wind on Day one took its toll. I am quite confident that a late tee time would have seen Faldo make the cut and have a shot at continuing a great record of 7 Top 20's in 12 events. His cut miss has been taken at face value in my opinion last week rather than the circumstances surrounding it and we therefore have the chance to trade Faldo with a limited downside.

Sell Anders Hansen at 31.9 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 48.5, Loss 8.3 Pts
Another player with an average result in the Johnnie Walker is Hansen who finished 38th. Previously on this Tour he has had 7 Top 25's in 13 events so now has a 50% record on that stat. So purely on that stat alone we have value. None of these three players initially traded have played here before in the BMW last year so we can only base our bets on prices, current form and general Tour form and in all three cases these prices are too high.

Sell Marcus Fraser at 35 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 7.5 Pts
Another player with a poor finish last week who is supported on his all round Tour form rather than what he achieved in an event which had questionable results due to the weather issues of day one. Three Top 20's in six previous events on this tour suggest Fraser likes it here and his 2005 form is fair too with three further Top 20's in seven events. He should be a couple of points lower.

Sell Brett Rumford at 33.1 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 8.45 Pts
Three Top 20's in six events on this tour shows Rumford is value at 33 on the exchange and although 2 points lower than Fraser he has immediate form from the weekend that is a huge positive. 6th at the weekend shows good current form and all in all Rumford should be a good few points lower than he is priced at.

Sell Paul McGinley at 26 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 12 Pts
Stanley puts a very good case up for McGinley on the outrights but in FP its all about probability and at 26, McGinley is just the right side of value to support in this type of bet as well. Ten Top 25's in 14 events on this tour including a run of 5/4/2/11 in his last four means that 26 should be traded in this fairly weak event when you get past the first 15 or so in the betting.

Sell Soren Hansen at 38.5 (spread free) with Spreadex M/U 8.5, Profit 15 Pts
Hansen has played many times on this tour and his record is good although not comparable to those above. 8 Top 25's in 20 events is fair but at 37/40 with the addition of the extra 1.5 pts on your bet makes this a qualifier.