Caltex Masters

Final Summary: Very poor end to the week where most of our supported players, bar Fraser, went backwards rapidly. Our prospects in the Bob Hope are better and may see us get out level for the week, but Sunday was just one of those days. Loss = 23 Pts.

Pre Round Three Trades (Summary: Not as good a position now as Haeggman, Rumford and Khan struggled. On the plus side Fraser, Kennedy and Hansen are performing well. Unfortunately today I am away and cannot update any potential new bets or closures. I was hoping to but the 90 players making the cut meant the 3rd Round ended at 0930 British time so the prices won't be updated till probably lunch time.)

Buy Barry Lane FP for 0.5 pts at 42 with IG Sport M/U 22.5, Loss 9.75 Pts.
This is a tricky one. I don't want to close Lane totally as it would cost us 9 pts but he is in a poor position with 90 through to the weekend. His only saving grace is he gets out first and gets the best of the early morning conditions in both the weather and the greens. So we will close half the bet we have and let the other run. After tomorrow we will re-consider before the final round.

Buy David Howell FP for 0.5 pts at 33 with Spreadex M/U 50, Profit 8.5 Pts.
Closing this one out. With 90 players in the mix and such a tight spread of strokes for the bottom 80 or so, 33 is quite low and is based heavily on his reputation. Howell has done little in TV coverage that I have seen though to suggest he is going to contend. He is 35 elsewhere and even that is bordering on value.

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: We have a very compact leaderboard now with only 6 shots separating those 70 odd players on -3 and below. We lost Forsyth for a 4 pt loss, so we have the remainder to trade with. The only downside is that there are 90 players in the weekend so we have to trade warily)

Sell Simon Khan FP for 0.5 pts at 33 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 8.5 Pts.
Level after R1 and quoted fairly close to yesterdays price. I would suggest we go in again as the cut line looks like being 2 or 3 over and his previous tour record would make him value at 33.

Sell Barry Lane FP for 0.5 pts at 34 with Spreadex M/U 22.5, Profit 5.75 Pts.
Slightly riskier proposition here as Lane is +1 and therefore nearer the cut line. Another doubt in my mind is that he goes out later tomorrow so gets the worse conditions. I still think though that if he shoots ok he has the game and the form on this tour to move through this field and post a good week.

Sell Alistair Forsyth FP for 0.5 pts at 41 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Loss 4 Pts.
A poor day yesterday for the Scot with 32 putts taken, only 11 greens hit in regulation and only two pars saved from those remaining 7 holes. All in all then a 75 was as good as Forsyth was going to get. Par or better could see him into the weekend and setting off early in the morning gives him every possible chance to do so. It seems a fair risk of 4.5 pts on him bettering 41st place at the current state of play.

Sell David Howell FP for 0.5 pts at 30 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Loss 10 Pts.
Yesterday I thought his initial price was about right but today Sporting have dangled 30 to sell as he is currently 53rd. There is of course the obvious cut risk but that is factored into the price. In 04' Howell played 3 events here with the worst result 31st, so a better round tomorrow, like he achieved last week after a poor start could see him post another top 20.

This brings the total sell price of all bets to 379, so we would want to lose no more than 5 max. to the cut tomorrow.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Fair start, with the 7 sells not playing their way out of it so far. In FP selling the cut is an important factor and totalling up the prices we are selling the set at a nett 241 so we would want no more than 3 missing the weekend to keep us in a strong position. Westwood of course is a buy but like Mickelson stateside it is a fairly low starting price, so the worst scenario is no worse than a missed cut on any of our sells)

Sell Brad Kennedy FP for 0.5 pts at 36 with Spreadfair M/U 42, Loss 3 Pts.
Current form for Kennedy, albeit the tail end of the year, is good. 22nd, 20th and 4th in three Australian events, and 16th in Mallorca in October is a good run of results. His Tour form is ok, 5 Top 20's in 15 events in the last two years and in those 15 events he beat 36th place 11 times. I would pitch him around 32.

Sell Joakim Haeggman FP for 0.5 pts at 33 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 8.5 Pts.
In six events on this Tour, Joakim has made the cut and in only two occasions failed to beat 33. He is obviously happy with playing on this continent with its specialist greens and humid conditions. For a spell last year Haeggman had possibilities of playing the Ryder Cup as his form had been well above anything he had done for years. Thirteen Top 20's last year show that he is still being underrated by layers with quotes of 66/1 in the outrights and 33 on FP's.

Sell Simon Khan FP for 0.5 pts at 35 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 7.5 Pts.
Like the others, you have to examine non Asian Tour players' past records to see if they adapt to the conditions. Khan has two top 10's (one here) in four visits so we have no issues on his competitiveness in Asia. Picking up his first win last year, Khan also posted 4 Top 20's including a 2nd in the Mallorca Classic. In a field with little depth in quality 35 is a couple of points too high.

Sell Barry Lane FP for 0.5 pts at 32 with Spreadex M/U 22.5, Profit 4.75 Pts.
Barry makes a point of coming over here every year and his results show why. Ten events played from 2001 onwards, all cuts made, and all inside the Top 40 bar one event (41st in Hong Kong in 01'). Lane was 5th here last year although a poor last round where he was last out meant it was ultimately disappointing for him. He recovered though to win in England in May and was Top 10 twice more before the year end.

Sell Soren Hansen FP for 0.5 pts at 35 with Spreadex M/U 19, Profit 8 Pts.
Another regular visitor to this Tour. Soren has 7 Top 20's and 3 missed cuts from the turn of the century. Not as prolific results wise as Lane, Hansen can be a bit hit and miss no matter what tour he is on. That though is factored into the price and at 35 he is worthy of a bet. In 2004 he had an above average number of Top 20's but also missed 11 weekends.

Buy Lee Westwood FP for 0.5 pts at 18.5 (Spread Free) with Spreadex M/U 7.5, Loss 5.5 Pts.
Lee's tour record on FPs since 2001 reads : Played 4 Average 39. He has regularly been priced up lower than his true chance and anyone who followed the spreads here last year will know we buy Westwood regularly. I have no axe to grind on Westwood as he is a great player, but he is still being priced as if he is the same player that he was in 2000. His 04' record is actually average for such a highly regarded player. No wins, 3 placed, and four further Top 10's is good but not great for a player who is regularly priced amongst the favourites.

Sell Brett Rumford FP for 0.5 pts at 33 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 8.5 Pts.
(There is small amounts available at 33.9 at Spreadfair but for purposes of P & L we will sell at 33)
Good form on this Tour for Aussie Brett. 8th here last year and 18th in 02' are his best results on the Asian tour and like a few players we are playing this week he posted a win in 2004. This came in Ireland in July and his other good results were a 9th in Madrid and similar in the South African Open. Spreadex go 31-34 and i am inclined to think they have called his chances correct in that quote.

Sell Marcus Fraser FP for 0.5 pts at 39 with IG Sport M/U 7.5, Profit 15.75 Pts.
Cant understand this price or the fact is was lower earlier in the day and has since lengthened. At a risk of 5.5 pts I think its a fair bet to play Fraser who has two Top 20's in for events on Tour. He did miss the cut here last year but shot 68 in R2 in a valiant attempt to qualify after an opening 78. In 2004 he had 7 Top 20's but 6 of those were early in the year so hopefully for the purposes of this bet he shows similar early season form this week.