Carlsberg Malaysian Open

Finishing Position Trades (all to 0.5 pt Stakes)

(Final Summary: A very poor week which after the delays between rounds early on was difficult to get out of. Considering the position going into R4 we have got out of this one a lot better than it could have been with Fraser climbing quite high and McGinley getting to the Top 5.) Loss 18.55 Pts

Round Three: (Summary: This is turning into a very poor week, Jaidee has shot away and rubbished his form coming into the event and not enough of the supported players are doing enough to cover those that aren't. All we can hope for in R4 is our remaining supported players to move up the LB as much as they can.)

Round Two: (Summary: Uphill struggle from now on, 3 of the 7 sells have gone and the one buy leads by 2 !!!. We shall see what the prices for R3 bring but we need a little of the weekend form of last weeks sells from our survivors this week.)

Pre Round One Trades: (Summary: Jaidee has found his form again but with 54 holes to go, it's not a lost bet yet. Some others have started poorly, Campbell +4, Kjeldsen +2/12, Zhang +2 and Fraser +1/12, however all were late starters so hopefully will get off to a good start tomorrow and get in to the weekend. The R1 early starters, McGinley and the two Hansen's are nicely in the top 30.)

Sell Michael Campbell at 38.6 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 5.7 Pts
OK, why suggest supporting a player who we happily opposed (correctly) last week, a player who has now missed 11 of his last 12 cuts. Simply, the price. The price you trade at is everything in this game and you will regularly find value in a player who is performing at the other side of your intended trade. It may turn out to be a false hope but at 38.6 Cambo is easily 4 to 5 pts too high in this field. At this course he has finished 7th in 2001 and his full Asian Tour record shows 6 Top 10's from his last 9 visits.

Sell Lian-Wei Zhang at 35 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 7.5 Pts
A missed cut here last year and a R1 81 in Japan before Christmas is two reasons i can give for why Zhang is high at 35 to sell this week. What is a positive though is 3 top 30's since that 81, and a general good set of figures when playing at "home". In 25 events played since May 01' Zhang has 9 Top 10's (4 wins) and only failed to make the weekend twice. At those numbers 35 is way too high.

Sell Marcus Fraser at 31 with Spreadex M/U 26, Profit 2.5 Pts
Fraser has a particularly good record on this tour with three Top 20's in 5 visits, one of them being here last year. 13th last week is a good prep for this week. This followed a MC at the Heineken but before that he was Top 5 in Singapore.  

Sell Soren Hansen at 34 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 8 Pts
When looking at players playing on a different part of the world it is usually best to ignore their worldwide form and concentrate on what they have done where they are this week. 16 visits since the turn of the century has seen Soren achieve 8 top 20's and only miss two cuts. He has mixed results here with a 5th back in 01' then one of those two MC's last year. Like Fraser, a MC at the Heineken followed a Top 20 in Singapore. With the differing types of greens i would certainly prefer it that way than success in Australia and missed cuts in Singapore. 

Sell Paul McGinley at 28.5 (spread free) with Spreadex M/U 4.5, Profit 12 Pts
This, I admit, is a play on price as I am concerned about the fact McGinley is here this week after being in California at the AT & T late Sunday night. However, 28.5, with the additional 1.5pts from Spreadex's offer is too good to pass. McGinley, like many Europeans, faired well at the Clambake finishing 30th but the bet is based on his Asian record where his stats for the last few years are impressive. 8 top 30's from 11 visits in his career make this bet value and his course stats are 21st and 12th in the two years he has played here.

Buy Thongchai Jaidee at 25.6 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 1, Loss 12.3 Pts
Jaidee had the most incredible record from late 03' thru to March last year where he had 8 Top 12's in 8 events with three of them wins. Then he came over to play in Europe and the U.S. and his form dipped. Normally you would expect going home would see a return to form back in his own surroundings but it's mixed. Four events either side of Christmas see him post a 2nd, a 5th, a 39th and a MC in the last one, in Singapore.

Sell Anders Hansen at 32.4 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 16, Profit 7.8 Pts
Here we have another player with good tour form. One MC in 12 starts and 6 Top 25's means that Hansen does play as well in this part of the world as he does at home, possibly more so. 34th and 21st on this course albeit 4 and 6 years ago suggests he should be traded at this price. Sporting give him a better chance and are as low as 29-32.

Sell Soren Kjeldsen at 35.3 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 7.35 Pts
Last bet pre-start on another Scandinavian. Kjeldsen, like all the examples above of supported players has good Tour form, if not great. He regularly makes cuts like all the others but where he falls back in the argument is his top 20 ratio which is poor at 3 from 17 attempts. He still rates as value though at the price and his course record of 14th back in 01' probably just swings it.