TCL Classic

Finishing Positions (0.5pt Stakes)

Summary: -27.95 Pts. The biggest disappointment this week is the fact that we lost nearly 40 points on the trades we made before R1. Some good trading after R1 softened the blow but this was a bad week and at the moment the PGA event holds out little hope of covering this deficit. A bad week of which there always will be some but ensuring the good weeks outnumber them is the challenge.

Pre Round Three Trades:  (Summary: The plays yesterday haven't turned a bad event into a good one but what they have done is stop the bleeding so far. Zhang and Derksen are heading to a 50 M/U and the two new trades are a little further away than they were yesterday.)

Buy James Kingston at 27 with IG Sport M/U 34.5 Profit 3.75 Pts
We are going to submit a number of trades in an attempt to soften the blow of the situation we are in, some are closing trades, some are top-ups at good value prices and some are new trades based on the price in relation to the player's position in the field. Kingston is traded at 27 as there are 35 players on the same score or only one behind him. He has every chance of course of getting above 27 with a good round on Saturday but could easily fall behind with an average score.

Buy Raphael Jacquelin at 21 with Spreadex M/U 20.5 Loss 0.25 Pts
Similar reasons here, with Jacquelin, he is T20 but only 3 strokes off of last place. With 72 players in the field now but 71 of them within 6 strokes of each other and in a low scoring golf course, 21 is a bit low.

Buy Robert Jan Derksen at 37 with IG Sport (1pt stake) M/U 50 Profit 13 Pts
Buy Prayad Marksaeng at 31 with Sporting Index M/U 34.5 Profit 1.75 Pts
Buy Lian-Wei Zhang at 35 with Spreadex M/U 44 Profit 4.5 Pts
Closing the remainder of the sells bar McGinley as their price is value to do so. I appreciate it now means we are up against it in making a profit this week but it also ensures if these 3 play as they have been, which is average, then we will not lose any more.

Buy Thaworn Wiratchant at 22 with Sporting Index M/U 20.5 Loss 0.75 Pts
Buy Terry Pilkadaris at 15 with Sporting Index M/U 13.5 Loss 1 Pt.
Finally, I believe that these two players are still being priced too low. As previously stated an average round on this course sees you fall dramatically. The situation we are in now is that we have a fairly big loss banked on those who missed the cut and our best hope of getting anything from this week is to oppose some players at low prices who could conceivably go on and cost us more money but if two or three of them fall back would absorb a lot of the costs incurred so far.

Pre Round Two Trades: (Summary: A missed cut for Broadhurst who was in the Top 5 at the end of R1 sums up what is turning into a nightmare event. Like last week we have lost far too many players at the cut leaving us struggling throughout.)

Sell Robert Jan Derksen at 38 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 6 Pts
Taking a bigger than normal risk here but this course is easy and the field is full of lesser known Asian players, albeit filling up a larger than normal field of 168. Putting all the scores and known facts into the pot, Derksen should be a little lower than the 38 he currently is. We are effectively now on a double bet at 36 but will re examine the scores tomorrow and assess our position.

Sell Jyoti Randhawa at 43 with Sporting Index M/U 50 Loss 3.5 Pts
Very poor R1 from Randhawa who was fancied pre start, however with all the facts as stated above about the easiness of the course and the lack of quality, he is worth the risk at 43. Six Top 3's in eleven events in Asia may take some effort to get to 7 from 12 but certainly if he does get into the weekend he should be a lot shorter than 43 at some point.

Pre Round One Trades: (Summary: Our later bets fared better than those this morning although there seems no real advantage what time you go out as this looks like one of the easiest courses the pro's will play all year. Woosnam is -2, Kennedy -1 and are struggling to make the weekend. These poor results have been countered by McGinley and Broadhurst in the Top 5. Will be interesting to see how the firms price up R2 as a par round here would see half the field fly past you.)

adding
Sell Prayad Marksaeng at 30 with Cantor Sports M/U 34.5 Loss 2.25 pts
Same price at the traditional arm of Cantor as is available on the exchange so take the 30 at Cantor Sports on Marksaeng who is quite a high price considering his tour form. In the aforementioned event that Pilkadaris struggled in two weeks ago in Thailand, Prayad finished 6th and it was a continuation of good tour form where he has posted 16 Top 20's in his last 25 events with only one missed cut in that list, so 30 is good value.

Sell Paul McGinley at 23.4 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 2, Profit 10.2 Pts
McGinley has a 8 from 12 record on this tour in covering this quote. In a field where the quality out-with the Top 20 or so is a little poor the only reason for McGinley being over 23 is the fact he finished nearly last in Qatar last week. Paul finished 11th in this event in 02' albeit at a different course but it is still form pertinent to the locality and at 23.4 I feel this is the best quote from the top 6 or so in the betting.

Sell Robert Jan Derksen at 34.1 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50 Loss 7.95 Pts
Derksen has played on this tour 9 times and although he has made every cut, he finished as a 50 M/U the first 7 times. However, he seems to have got the knack of Asian golf as in the last two events he has finished 12th in December in Hong Kong and 19th in Malaysia 4 weeks ago. At 34.1 in an average field he is worthy of some interest.

Sell Paul Broadhurst at 35.1 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50 Loss 7.45 Pts
Taking a chance here on Broadhurst based on his current form rather than tour form as in Asia he has 4 missed cuts from 9 and 22nd as his best return. Four Top 25's in his last 7 events playing back to October, with notably a 22nd in China in November is positive reasons for support at this price. This is a borderline advice and I would take no less than 34.

Buy Terry Pilkadaris at 28 with Sporting Index M/U 13.5 Loss 7.25 Pts
Pilkadaris played in the Thailand Open 2 weeks ago and shot rounds of 73/74/75/76 to finish 65th which is pretty desperate stuff and at a fairly low buy price this week it is worth chancing he has not found his normal form. Even if he has, 28 is quite low considering what he has achieved in the game. He is priced at 28 as he has winning form on this course and further form in the place of a 16th in 2003. However, I am a firm believer of current over course and results in 05' of 33/cut/cut/19/65/32 suggests that we should take more heed of those figures more than what he has done here.

Buy Thaworn Wiratchant at 28 with Sporting Index M/U 20.5 Loss 3.75 Pts
Wiratchant missed the cut when he last played on this course but the reason for the play is more long term form based rather than tour or course form. He has a habit of chucking in the odd bad week amongst a lot of good weeks and therefore his average FP can get up and beyond the 28 we are asked to buy at this week. In 23 starts in the last 12 months he has M/U at 50 nine times as well as posting 7 Top 10's. So it is a bit all or nothing with this player and at the price the risk is worth the chance he falls on the side of failure this week.

Sell Ian Woosnam at 36 with Sporting Index M/U 50 Loss 7 Pts
The newly appointed Ryder Cup Captain has impressive form over in Asia. In 11 visits he has posted a win, a 2nd, two further Top 10's and 3 missed cuts. With a known downside of 7pts at risk I feel we should play on Woosie and see if he can get back some of the form of the past. We have had some success over the last year supporting Faldo on this tour at high prices and I see no reason for Woosnam in this company to be over 34.

Sell Brad Kennedy at 36 with Spreadex M/U 50 Loss 7 Pts
Two missed cuts in the desert golf of Qatar and Dubai sees Kennedy be given a quote of 36 by Spreadex. His Asian tour form though is a little better than a 36-39 price with 14/9 record in beating 36th place in all tour events since the start of 2003. It could just be a case that he doesn't play well in the desert as in his only other appearance in one of these events he also missed the cut. We shall take a risk that the problem is his suitability to the conditions rather than a problem in his game.

Sell Lian-Wei Zhang at 32 with Spreadex M/U 44 Loss 6 Pts
Backing the local boy at 32 in a poor field where has local knowledge and a good tour record of 5 top 10's in the last two years in 15 events. Zhang missed the cut in Malaysia in February but in four years he has missed 3 cuts and all of them in Malaysia. Whether there is any reasoning to that or just a run of numbers, who knows, but in China he has a 5/11/1/7/5/28 record in that time which makes the quote of 32 too high by a few points.