Australian Open

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Rod Pampling to beat Aaron Baddeley  -116 @ Pinnacle
There are good reasons to not oppose Baddeley this week - he is the touring pro for the host course, Moonah Links, and he has finished 1st, 1st and 2nd in his last three Australian Opens - but I am going to do so anyway! Apart from one week (Texas Open), he has played very poorly since returning from injury with a best finish of 33rd in the last six months and he even missed the cut in the MasterCard Masters two weeks ago. He has admitted that he has not practised as much as he would like for this event as he was involved in his own World Junior Championship last week. He has a great history in this event, but this year should be much more of a struggle.
(also available at Five Dimes and Centrebet)

Rod Pampling to beat Jarrod Moseley -110 @ SkyBet [4.5 units]
Discounting last year's shortened event (due to the speed of the greens), Moseley' record in this event is rather mixed and does not compare well to that of Pampling. Add in Pampling's two very near misses in the last two weeks, even though Moseley did get into the playoff in the MasterCard Masters, and he really should go close again this week. Moseley is nowhere near as consistent.
(also available at Sportingbet and Sporting Odds)

Euan Walters to beat Steve Collins -115 @ Five Dimes [4.5 units]
After showing very little form for the best part of three years, Walters has been very impressive in the last two weeks. He has finished 11th and 6th, finishing both events in style and well ahead of Collins on both occasions. With Collins having missed the cut in three of his last four Australian Opens, Walters only need to keep up this form to ensure a healthy win.

Adam Crawford to beat Marcus Fraser -105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Opposing Fraser again. His form was faltering at the end of his European campaign and it has continued in Australia with finishes of 40th and a missed cut in the last two weeks. Little comparison with Crawford who has finished in the top-20 on both occasions. Similar story in this event with Fraser missing the cut in his sole appearance and Crawford finishing 42nd and 6th in the last two years.

Stephen Leaney to beat Geoff Ogilvy -108 @ Pinnacle
Largely a hedge play on the Ogilvy outright. Leaney was a very close fourth choice for the outrights as he is an excellent links and wind player, but he played indifferently in the Presidents Cup and the Nedbank Challenge. He should still feature, but Ogilvy looks the more likely player to win, but is opposed here as he rather erratic and is much more likely to miss the cut than Leaney.

Adding (1.5 units unless stated):

Steve Allan to beat Peter Fowler -125 @ Expekt
With top-10 finishes in each of the last two weeks and his 2004 PGA Tour safely secured before the end of the season, this has been a very good twelve months for Steve Allan. He will have the pressure of being defending champion, but he is playing better than his opponent who has a poor record in this event anyway.

John Senden to beat Marcus Fraser -118 @ Expekt [4.5 units]
Another chance to oppose Fraser eagerly seized! Senden may have a poor record in this event, but he is playing far better in the last 18 months than at any time and is comfortably in the top-125 on the PGA Tour. He has finished ahead of Fraser in each of the last two weeks and should do again this week.

Stephen Leaney to beat Aaron Baddeley +100 @ Paddy Power and SIA
Adding another small play on Leaney as the wind is forecast to blow this week. Badds will either keep up his incredible run in this event in which case this is a single unit lost or he will miss the cut. He is much more likely to do either of these than grind out the pars in the same way that Leaney did en route to finishing 2nd in the U.S. Open in June.

P.S. There is a rather large chance for a scalp on the Walters play above if you managed to get on at the original price. Five Dimes are now offering Collins @ +135!

Final update: 4-4-0; +0.29 units

Pampling/Baddeley LOST by 4
Pampling/Moseley LOST by 9
Walters/Collins WON by 6
Crawford/Fraser LOST by 4
Leaney/Ogilvy WON by 7
Allan/Fowler LOST by 3
Senden/Fraser WON by 2
Leaney/Baddeley WON by 8

Small gain on the matchups, but they were never looking very good as soon as Pampling missed the cut. Three plays lost on a player who had been so consistent. Made to regret not having Leaney as an outright selection, but at least he won both his matches. Always satisfying to finish the last week of the season in profit.