Australian Open

Pre Event Trades

Sell Geoff Ogilvy Finishing Position at 23 with Sporting Index for 0.5 points. MU 50

Unfortunately, it looks as if its only Sporting who are pricing up FP prices and few are value. However, Ogilvy is even although he is very much a hit and miss player shown perfectly last week by two scores in the mid 60s and two in the mid 70s. Therefore, he isn't the type of player to have complete faith in when playing FP's. However, at 23, is the right side of value to suggest we have a good price here. Like last week, the depth in quality is poor and is highlighted more this week as some players you would expect to be in their own championship are not here.

Sell Nick O' Hern Finishing Position at 23 with Sporting Index for 0.5 points. MU 27

Selling O' Hern at the same price as last week in arguably a poorer field. Last week O' Hern was 16th which was after a poor weekend so hopefully this week he can put in four good rounds and finish much higher. He is averaging 7 in 10 Top 25's on the Australian tour and is therefore a good price at 23. Pre tournament reports suggest this is a very tough course and this may suit his steady game.

Post Round 1 Trades

Buy Stephen Allan over Geoff Ogilvy on a 72H Match Bet at 4.2 with Spreadex for 1 point. MU 20

Allan is four ahead and by my calculations would on average finish four ahead. The value however, and something Spreadex have not picked up on, is that Ogilvy is currently 2 shots outside the cut line. If he were to miss the cut then the bet would be finished after R2 with both scores doubled.
Therefore, the bet is value at 4.2 as it should be over 5 to accomodate the % chance of Ogilvy being out of the weekend festivities. It is of course possible that Allan too will MC but much less likely as he has a 2 shot cushion on the cut-line. Both have an early TT and will hope to get handily placed and safe before the PM players tee off, but Ogilvy is far enough behind to suggest the price on offer is good value as they stand.

By placing this bet you also have a small insurance bet on the pre event suggestion of selling Ogilvy's FP which of course would incur a 13.5pt loss (to rec: stakes) were he to fail to reach the weekend.

Cut Summary

Ogilvy started with a poor 76 and his 2nd round 72 came up one shot short in making the cut. Unfortunately then, our pre-event FP sell makes-up at 50. However, it is also the end of the Match bet as well and Stephen Allan shot a fine 66 in R2 to see him finish 10 shots ahead of Ogilvy. With scores doubling as one player MC it means the loss incurred on the FP bet (13.5pts) was covered with a near 16pt win on the match. Therefore, only the O' Hern bet is currently running for us, he is currently tied 30th.

Final Summary

O' Hern finished in a tie for 25th with an FP MU of 27. Disappointing end as he never really made the move that we hoped for. All in all a below average week which could have been much worse if it wasn't for the match bet placed after R1