Australian PGA Championship

Pre Event Trades:

Sell Adam Scott over Peter Lonard on a 72 Hole Match Bet at 1 with Cantor Sport for 1 point. MU -8

I have this as very close, at face value Lonard would be favourite based on past course performance (Lonard won last year, Scott was 7th). Also, Lonard has an impeccable record on the ANZ Tour, 10 Top 10s in 16 events, with the worst result being 26th in 3 seasons. Scott's record in the same period is 5 Top 10s from 16 with 5 missed cuts. Scott is obviously a vastly improving player but allowing for that at best would make them equally priced at 0.75. Therefore getting a 1 stroke start is good value.

Sell Craig Parry Finishing Position at 23 with Spreadex for 0.5 points. MU 3

Parry, like the 2 players above, has played 16 events in the last 3 years (probably in truth the same events), from those he would have covered an FP quote of 23 in all but 2 events and in one of those he would have broke even. He has had one MC which was at the Australian Tour Champs in Feb 01. and his record on this course is 19th, 3rd, 3rd and 1st on his last 4 visits. 23 is too high as the depth of talent in this event is weak as is normal in Australasian events, hence the scoring records the top players regularly post.

Sell Nick O' Hern Finishing Position at 25 with Spreadex for 0.5 points. MU 16.5

Only Spreadex and Sporting have priced up FPs this week and i would have been happy to take Sportings' 22 let alone the far more enticing 25 that Spreadex offer. You have to go back to 1996 to find the last time O' Hern was outside the Top 20 on this course and although his general Australasian tour performances are not of the quality of Parry or Lonard he is still able to show 9 Top 9s in the 3 year period we have measured. 25 is a fair price for a fancied player this week.

Sell Stephen Allan Finishing Position at 29 with Spreadex for 0.5 points. MU 10

Allan's Australasian performances are slowly improving and his last 3 events have been finishes of 7th last week, and 11th and 1st in events at the start of the year. He was supposedly boxing above his weight when 2nd on the PGA Tour at the Greater Milwaukee but followed up the next week with 5th at the BC Open. After that he had two more top 20s in the US and although he tailed off has come back well in his native land with last weeks' 7th place. 29 is too high.

Sell Peter O' Malley Finishing Position at 27.5 with Spreadex for 0.5 points. MU 8.5

Spreadex have a unique offer whereby if you do three trades you can have a fourth "spread free". (ie. you get to buy or sell at the midpoint of their quote). O Malley is 26-29 and at 27.5 is a fair sell given his record at the course and his recent finish last week. At Huntingdale he was a fast finishing 8th last week and was 8th here last year.


Buy Greg Norman on the Leaderboard Index at 4 with Spreadex for 0.5 points. MU 0

Norman is an outside fancy for this event, and is priced, in theory, at 76/1 to win on this index. Spreadex pay down to 5th only, but do pay 80 points to the winner. So for a low cost we have a speculative punt on a player who can still turn it on in his homeland. His record on tour here is four Top 6's from 6 events played the last 3 years and therefore 4 is way too low a quote for a player with this level of form.

Post Round 1 Trades

Sell Adam Scott on a 10 man Index at 19 with Cantor Sport for 0.5 points. MU 0

After R1 Scott finds himself 3 behind Pampling and one behind both O' Hern and Parry and is tied with Lonard and
O' Malley. However Cantor have installed him as their 19-22 favourite. At the outset i had Scott justifying favouritism in this list with Lonard but with the scores as they are currently, i have Scott to finish around 4th/5th. Therefore, 19 is too high and should be traded.

Post Round 2 Trades

Buy Craig Parry over Jarrod Moseley on a 72H Match Bet at 6.5 With IG Index for 1 point. MU 10

Parry is currently 6 ahead and is handily placed to challenge this weekend. With better credentials beforehand for this event and better form during the first two rounds he should arguably should be clear favourite over and above the 6 stroke lead he has in this match rather than just having to pay half of IG's spread to be with him.
 

Summary - A good week this week. The Finishing position trades were all based on the premise that the better Australian players do tend to perform fairly well on their own tour due to the lack of quality. Both Match Bets and the index trade also won well, Scott was opposed in two bets as he always seemed overpriced at various stages of the event. Finally, Norman lost although he gave us a run for our money, having two great round mixed in with two poor rounds. Maybe, age and injuries suggest he cant play at the top level for four days in a row, time will tell.

All in all, it was a case of picking off good prices when they are available and we achieved a profit of 53.25pts. If you can get value in every bet the wins will outnumber losses sufficiently to make a long term profit which is the ultimate aim.