Tipster: Andy

ANZ Championship

Bet 1 - 72 Hole MB @ Sporting Index Staking 0.5 pts.
             Sell Peter Fowler over Craig Parry at 0. (MU 20, Profit -10pts)

This is a stableford points system event this week, so it is harder to forecast end scores and the spread from the top to the bottom will be quite steep. Therefore, this bet carries a larger volatility than normal and is staked accordingly. The scoring is 10pts the winner, 1pt per stableford point won by.

Parry basically should be the favourite here. He averages nearly 90% of his tour events in the Top 25 and only misses 1 in 20 cuts. He also obtains a top 10 more than 1 in 2 events. Compare this to Fowler, who, admittedly with a good 3rd last week, averages 50% Top 25s and less than 2 in 5 Top 10s. Fowler is a false favourite here and it is worth siding with the stats above at the price offered.

Bet 2 - Sell M Campbell over P Casey 18H MB at 0 with Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts. (MU 17, Profit -8.5 pts)

After losing money on Campbell last week, i hope to get part of it back on this bet this week. Tour form is sparse, Campbell having played 8 times in 3 years to Casey's 4. But of the two Casey has slightly the better form. Also, Casey is arguably more suited to this style of scoring where risk is rewarded. Other firms have them as "take your pick" but Cantor see fit to make Campbell favourite and possibly Casey is more deserving of that tag.

Bet 3 - Buy C Parry over I Woosnam 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. (MU -18, Profit -11.5 pts)

We made a good profit opposing Woosnam last week and although this price is one of the highest in R1 (bar the Laura Davies matches) the difference in current form, and tour form between the two is startling. Woosnam has missed 2 cuts out of 2 this year, he has played twice in Australia with his MC last week and a place outside the Top 30 in his other event. Parry, however, averages 90% Top 25s at home and has good previous form in this style of event. Woosnam isn't renowned these days as a player who shoots really low and it is something you need to do to contend in stableford scoring events.

R1 Summary - Disappointing results on the two 18H bets, but you can't win all the time. Results in 18H markets have been good all year, averaging 70% wins to losses which is all you can ask for. The more worrying aspect of today's scores is the gap between the two players in our 72H match bet. Given the nature of the scoring system it is very hard to find an angle on tournament bets so i would suspect any further bets on this event will be 18H matches.

Post Round 1 Trades

Bet 4 - Buy Craig Parry over Ian Woosnam 18H MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. (MU 28, Profit 12 pts)

Bet 5 - Sell Michael Campbell over Paul Casey 18H MB at 1 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts. (MU -18, Profit 9.5 pts)

The Reasons for both bets are as they were for R1. The bets are still value at the prices with an extra point on each given to us as allowance for the bad results yesterday.

Bet 6 - Sell Ian Woosnam over Peter Hanson 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. (MU -25, Profit 12.5 pts)

Woosnam as we stated above has started poorly this year. Hanson on the other hand has a 4th place in his CV for the year from last week. Woosnam won this 2 ball yesterday by 4 pts but i hope that Woosnam will fall back tonight and finish last of his 3 ball to give us a winning return on two bets.

Bet 7 - Buy Peter Fowler over Nick Dougherty 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. (MU 15, Profit 6 pts)

Both are on the same score after R1 but in Australia Fowler is a far better player than Dougherty who has really struggled over the last year or so. Dougherty has played the last 4 weeks and his best position so far is 32nd. Fowler was 3rd last week and has a scoring average a full shot better than Dougherty is recent weeks.

R2 Summary.

Better results today with all matches going as planned. Also, the 72H MB is still running due to Parry's return to form. He still has a little to find to catch up but now has the full two days to do so.

Post Round 2 Trades

Bet 8 - Buy Paul Casey over Steve Webster 18H MB at 5 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. (MU -16, Profit -10.5 pts)

Siding with Casey here as Webster has no experience of being out in the last group on a Saturday in R3. On the two occasions Webster has been in the 2nd last group going into R3 he has finished 33rd and 38th by the Sunday night. He does seem to be a player who gets better results coming with a late run.

Final Summary

Profit -0.5pts

Some good profits eventually on the 18's eaten up by the poor show by Parry in the only outright bet. Disappointing finish over the weekend after getting such a good set on results in R2. Mind you for all the 18H profits I will be glad for the return of normal strokeplay next week.

Tipster: Shaker

ANZ Championship