Australian PGA Championship

Finishing Positions (0.5pt stakes)

Result: 22.5 pt Profit on the week, Green was the only disappointment (bar Campbell) although I am convinced we played him at the right times, just that he performed his best golf at the wrong time for us. The remainder more than made up for it.

Post Round Two Trades

Buy Richard Green at 33 with Spreadex **For 1 pt** (M/U 22.5, Loss 10.5 pts)
It is a common practice in Spread Betting to close a winning bet and take your profit. Not only is this wrong but the only time you should close a winning bet (or a losing one for that matter) is when the opposite price is now the value trade. Not only should you do that but you should close the bet and open it again to the same stake. In the case of Green we have today that scenario. Value at 40 before the cut he is now in for the weekend but is still a long way from the top end of the leaderboard and is only one place off of finishing last. What you will have in effect here if you have done both bets is a completely new buy of Green at 26 and at that price it is very good value indeed. If trading this bet for the first time only stake a half point at 33.

Post Round One Trades

Sell Richard Green at 40 with Spreadex (M/U 22.5, Profit 8.75 pts)
Green is +3 after a poor 75 in R1. He is currently outside the top 100 but is only 2 strokes off of those on the cut line. At 40 it is a risky bet but in a field where he is undoubtedly in the Top 20 in talent I think his price should be in the mid 30's.

Sell Brett Rumford at 33 with Sporting Index (M/U 39.5, Loss 3.25 pts)
Rumford is level and in 50th position currently but with a fairly tight leaderboard once you get away from the top two, it wouldn't take much for a player in his position to get up far higher than the 33-36 he is currently being offered at. It is a fair bet down to 32.

Sell Rod Pampling at 27 with Sporting Index (M/U 10.5, Profit 8.25 pts)
Pampling is a full 9 strokes behind leader Estes. He is does have excellent form in Australia and for a similar reason to to the Hong Kong bet of Poulter, all we ask is he performs well enough to make the weekend then we will have a fair price at 27 to go into the last 36 holes with. A double bogey on the par 3 14th was his undoing yesterday, hopefully he will fair better tonight.

Pre Tournament Trades

Sell Craig Parry at 23 with Sporting Index (M/U 10.5, Profit 6.25 pts)
Parry was T18th last week which was a small win for us. The initial reasoning though can still apply a week later -

"Popeye has failed to beat 24th only once in his last 12 strokeplay events on this tour."

Spreadex go 18-21 which will be swallowed up probably by the time I actually upload this suggestion but they are probably in the right with their price. I expect the two will meet around the 21 mark by the time all firms prices are freely available.

Sell Bob Estes at 26.4 with Spreadfair (M/U 3, Profit 11.1 pts, after comm.)
Estes played last week in Australia and was a respectable 15th. He has now played on this tour 4 times albeit going back some years but always seems to perform ok without threatening the places. Estes had a shocking start to the season but as the year went on he posted a few half decent results. 3 Top 20''s in his last 5 starts suggest that along with his performance last week his game is in a better state than for some time.
(Note Spreadfair is an exchange with a 5% commission on winning bets. Only play at Spreadfair if their price is at least 0.4pts better than the best other quote)

Sell Peter O' Malley at 27 with Spreadfair (M/U 10.5, Profit 7.84 pts, after comm.)
O' Malley has a good record on this course finishing 8th twice in a row. His tour form is generally sound and he is offered at just a bit too high at the exchange when Spreadex are a full three points lower. At the price or anything down to 26 he is a fair bet.

Sell Greg Chalmers at 27.8 with Spreadfair (M/U 22.5, Profit 2.5 pts, after comm.)
Chalmers price currently is available in stages from 28.6 down to 27.8. At these prices he is a confident pick. His course form is good with two Top 5's in three events, and he was 15th last week which was a fair effort. After missing the cut in the Victoria Open in 1997 Greg went on a cut making run of 27 events before missing 2 cuts in early 04. In that time he won twice, and had 9 Top 10's in total. Therefore, his Australian form is too good to not take a price in the high 20's. 

Sell Michael Campbell at 33 with Sporting Index (M/U 50, Loss 8.5 pts)
Finally, the enigma that is Michael Campbell. A player who just can't seem to play at all in the States and who has had up and down form in Europe this year. However, in Australia his last two results were 12th and 5th. Going back a full 4 years he has 4 wins and 2 seconds amongst other good finishes. At 33 with a known downside he is worth some trust.