Heineken Classic
Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Paul Casey to beat Ian Poulter -112 @
Pinnacle
Apart from the usual reason of inconsistency for opposing Poulter in
matchups, his record in Australia is not too good either: mc, 3rd, 25th,
mc and 67th. Compare that to 4th, 1st and 18th for Casey and there is
plenty of reason to support the outright selection again.
(also available at SIA, Paddy Power, Sirbet and Centrebet)
Paul Casey to beat Michael Campbell -110 @
Sirbet
[4.5 units] *** SEE BELOW ***
No doubting Cambo's credentials when in Australia, he is a two-time
winner of this event (2000 and 2001 at the Vines), for example. But he
had surgery to remove varicose vein from his legs in the off-season and
was struggling to walk when he competed in the New Zealand Open last
month - he missed the cut. He may have recuperated more by this week,
but he should be no match for the young Englishman.
(available generally)
Craig Parry to beat Michael Campbell -111 @
Centrebet
Also siding with another of the outright selections in opposing
Campbell. Straightforward, given the above.
(also available at Pinnacle)
Craig Parry to beat David Smail -110 @
BetInternet
[3 units]
Smail has been in great form over the past month despite worries over
the effects of his cracked ribs - 3rd in the New Zealand Open and 4th in
the Johnnie Walker Classic. But he finished behind Parry in 2002 when
they both played in this event and Parry does have the dominant h2h
record on the Australasian Tour: 7-2-0 over the past three years.
(also available at Victor Chandler, SkyBet, SIA and Paddy Power)
David Howell to beat Alastair Forsyth -111 @
Stan James,
Paddy Power
and
SIA
Expecting another solid week from Howell. Not enough to be considered
for the outrights, but dependable in the matchups nonetheless. His last
missed cut in any event was back in July 2003 at the Irish Open (13
starts ago). He has a 2nd place finish on this course (2002) and this
veteran of events in Australia should certainly finish in the top-30
again. That is something that Forsyth has done only once in seven starts
in Australia.
David Howell to beat James Kingston -111 @
William Hill
and
Easybets
[3 units]
Similar story here. Kingston has won eight times on the Southern Africa
and Asian PGA Tours, but struggles in this part of the world. He has
finished 70th and 57th in his two starts in this country (2002 and 2003
Johnnie Walker Classics) and with no course experience, he should find
it difficult to improve on that average.
David Howell to beat Paul Lawrie -118 @
Expekt
Lawrie cannot claim to have played well on Australian soil either. In
six strokeplay events in this country, he has a best finish of 58th.
With only one top-10 finish (2003 Open de Madrid) since May last year,
he is hardly in the form to compete this week. Siding with the
consistent Howell.
Trevor Immelman to beat Raphael Jacquelin -112 @
Pinnacle
Three starts and three top-5 finishes is a very impressive start to the
2004 season for Jacquelin! However, he is still not in the same class of
player at Immelman who actually won one of those tournaments. There is
also concern over his form on Australian courses - in the last three
years he has played eight times in Australia and did finish 5th in the
2002 Johnnie Walker Classic, but his best finish from the other seven
starts was 44th. In the last two years on this course, he has finished
74th and missed the cut. So still not in the same class of player as
Immelman.
(available generally)
UPDATE:
Sirbet had included Chad Campbell instead of Michael Campbell in
their matchups and so all bets are void as Chad will not be starting.
The matchup is also available at
William Hill,
Easybets, Ladbrokes, BetInternet, Bet365 and Pinnacle though.
Final update: 4-4-0; -4.13 units
Casey/Poulter LOST by 6
Casey/Campbell LOST by 9
Parry/Campbell LOST by 8
Parry/Smail WON by 7
Howell/Forsyth WON by 8
Howell/Kingston LOST by 2
Howell/Lawrie WON by 2
Immelman/Jacquelin WON (Jacquelin wd)
Should have stuck with Sirbet voiding the Casey/Campbell
play! Michael Campbell's performance was a big and costly surprise,
while even though it was 0-for-3 on plays with Casey, he is still a
player that I will support strongly this year.
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