Australasian Tour - Outright Picks

 
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Heineken Classic

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Stuart Appleby to win 14/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and Victor Chandler
Appleby may not have played competitively on this course since the 1990s, but he is playing well enough to compete with Els. He showed that his run of 2nd and 1st place finishes at the end of the 2003 season was no fluke by winning the Mercedes Championship against one of the strongest fields of the year. In his home country, he should be a shorter price than this.

Paul Casey to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
Casey is a player that I will have no hesitation in supporting if the price is right. He did fail to close out this event when leading by two shots at the halfway stage last year, but he learned from that experience and promptly won the following week, again in the prestigious Benson and Hedges International Open and rarely finished outside the top-10 in any event in 2003. He did miss the cut on the PGA Tour last week, but that will have blown away the tournament cobwebs and it gives him an extra two days to prepare for this event.

Craig Parry to win 40/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Parry was not on my A-list for this event, but this a very surprising price. Not only did he finish in the top-10 last year, but his post-PGA Tour season finishes last year read: 7th, 33rd, 10th, 2nd, 3rd and 20th. And apart from the first event, the Japan Open, these were all against strong fields. Can't see him winning, despite winning the NEC Invitational in 2002, but equally it is difficult to envisage Popeye not being in contention at least this week.

Final update: 0-3; -4.50 units

Appleby 16th
Casey 39th
Parry 32nd

Not a good event. None of the selections even got into the top-10, let along a place position.