Heineken Classic

Bet 1 - Buy Paul Casey over Ian Poulter 72H MB at 0.75 with Spreadex for 1 pt. M/U -6, Profit -6.75 pts

Casey is the safer bet here. An Australian tour record of 4th (here), 1st and 18th in three events in 2003 and this compares favourably with Poulters record (25th here, MC, 67th in the same events). So Casey would have beaten him 3 from 3 in Aus events last year by a large aggregate no. of strokes. As we pointed out last week, Poulter is very much hit and miss on spread based markets and although we lost slightly last week we will hopefully recoup that and more this week.

Bet 2 - Sell Greg Norman FP at 35 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts. M/U 50, Profit -7.5 pts

Norman has played 23 times on his home tour in the last 8 seasons, he has missed the cut only twice and covered the sell quote of 35 in each of the other 21 attempts. His 25th last year followed a 6th the previous year. I accept Greg is not the player of old but this is a course his game will thrive on where you have to plot your way round. A very good value bet at the price.

Bet 3 - Buy Wade Ormsby over Charl Schwartzel 18H MB at 1.5 ch. with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. M/U 34, Profit 16.25 pts.

Backing the Australian here who has a recent record in his own country of 5th, 7th, 17th, 7th. Charl has played the Aus tour only once missing the cut in the ANZ Championships. Recent form in South Africa/Thailand is poor, he missed the cut in the Dunhill and finished 45th last week at the Alpine course. Ormsby should be a clear favourite with home advantage and is a good value bet.

Bet 4 - Buy Ernie Els over Nick Flanagan 18H MB at 17 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. M/U 31, Profit 7 pts.

Flanagan is one of the many top class kids coming through for Australian golf, however this is a tough course and he is up against the world no. 3 so the high price to pay for the bet is still value. A missed cut just before Christmas in the Aus Open, he is a player who in years to come could be as big as Scott, Baddeley et al. However Els on this tour is so consistant. He has won his last 3 tour events, 2 of which were here in 02' and 03. His worst FP in 8 years is 8th in 10 events.  All in all, this seems a very high price to pay in an 18H MB but when you examine all the facts it is still a good bet.

Bet 5 - Sell Michael Campbell over Greg Norman 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. M/U 31, Profit -14 pts

Selling Campbell here who missed the cut in his previous start in the New Zealand open shooting 71/74 3 weeks ago. He does have form here but i am inclined to think all the positives already stated above about Norman coupled with this latest Campbell performance should make them a toss of a coin bet.

Bet 6 - Buy Greg Norman over Iain Woosnam 18H MB at 3 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U 28, Profit 12.5 pts.

We have given the positives for Norman above. With Woosnam, the case for the prosecution in this bet is the fact he
has only played once on this tour in 4 years (38th in the Johnnie Walker, last year). Also his scoring average is deteriorating which with the advent of greater club and ball technology is an exception as most players have been lowering their average over the last 3 years. He also missed the cut last week in Thailand so his current form is also debatable.

Bet 7 - Buy Michael Campbell FP at 28 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U 5.5. Profit -11.25 pts

Another play on Campbell who had a poor start to the year in the NZ Open when he was recovering from an operation. With a few question marks over his fitness, 28 seems a low price when players with far more obvious claims here are higher.

Post Rd1 Trades

Bet 1 - Buy Ernie Els over Nick Flanagan 18H MB at 17 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U 25, Profit 4 pts.

Playing up on Els as although he is unlikely to shoot another 60, Flanagan is maybe as unlikely to shoot 67 so the reasons we advised for this match in R1 still apply somewhat. Flanagan played above himself in R1 and is certainly a player for the future but could quite easily fall back a little today.

Bet 2 - Buy Greg Norman over Ian Woosnam 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. M/U -19, Profit -12.5 pts

Norman started badly yesterday and was +3 early in his round. He got the shots back though and finds himself today with a fair shout of making the weekend. Woosnam started badly and got progressively worse and has very probably played himself out of the tournament already.

Bet 3 - Sell Michael Campbell over Greg Norman 18H MB at 5 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U 0, Profit 2.5 pts

Our only loss yesterday, but with Norman possibly being more aggressive today due to both players' leaderboard positions it may pay to go in again and try and recoup the losses..

Bet 4 - Buy Ernie Els FP at 3 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U 1, Profit -1pt

Els will probably win this but with 54 holes to go, a half decent field chasing him and the unlikely, though not impossible, chance of a mishap (remember Harrington at the Belfry) he should not be as low as 2-3 on FP. For the risk of 1 pt. this is an excellent bet. It also works as a little cover for the 18H match bet as well.

Post Round 2 Trades

Bet 1 - Buy Stuart Appleby over Simon Wakefield 18H MB at 10 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts. M/U 19, Profit 4.5 pts.

Appleby is simply a far better player than Wakefield and the price is too low. He has under performed this week and
is too far down the leaderboard to challenge (mind you so is 9 of the top 10) but he is good value at the price to beat Wakefield
whose only previous Australasian tour event was a MC in the ANZ Champs, last year.

Bet 2 - Buy Ernie Els over Richard Green 18H MB at 10 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. M/U 34, Profit 12 pts.

Similar reasoning here. Els has been unbelievable this week and has already given us a good return on 18H match bets placed.
Green has an average local tour record and has a very poor record with the putter. It obviously has been working so far this week
but that is no guarantee of success over the weekend. Once again a bet that is possibly a couple of points too low.

Post Round 3 Trades

Bet 1 - Buy Stuart Appleby over Sandy Lyle 18H MB at 11 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. M/U 37, Profit 13 pts

Basically the same reasons as the Appleby play yesterday. Appleby is a far better player than Lyle (nowadays, i may add as Lyle was one of the best in his prime). Although not in a position to challenge he should want to finish as high up the leaderboard as possible in front of his own support. With Lyle, it is easily the best performance of some time but if he was to go back to what has been his normal performance level of late in R4, then Appleby will cover this bet with some ease.
 

Summary

A case of deja-vu this week where excellent 18H returns have been hampered by the results on the 72H's and the FP's. for the first time in years Norman has made a cut and failed to play well over the weekend to get into the top 30. Campbell has played well above his performance of last time to finish top 5 and Casey fell away in R4 to leave Poulter a fairly easy 72H win. The 18's generally were a big success as we managed to catch some matches at the right time in the case of Appleby today, Els the first three days, and Wade Ormsby on day 1. Campbell haunted us though on 18s as well as outrights. Final profit for the week however was 18.75pts which is a step in the right direction.