Tipster: Stanley

New Zealand PGA Championship

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Scott Gutschewski to beat Chris Downes -118 @ Expekt
Downes disappointed last week when he could not beat an opponent who had missed the cut. Given that it was his third missed cut in six starts this season, he is opposed this week and he is certainly not the player that Gutschewski threatens to be.

Scott Gutschewski to beat Paul Gow -115 @ Five Dimes
No problems with missed cuts this year with Gow - he has made three from three - but this is part of the long road back to the PGA Tour for him. In their two common events (Jacob's Creek Open and 2003 PGA Tour Q-School), Gutschewski has finished well of Gow and should be a clear favourite in this matchup.

Nick O'Hern to beat Scott Gardiner -133 @ Centrebet and Expekt
He may have been top-ranked in the ratings, but O'Hern was not going to be backed in the outright market for a third week running. He has been playing well, just not getting himself over the winning line. So having finished a full 21 shots ahead of Gardiner on this course last year, O'Hern shouldn't need to get too close to leading the event before closing out this match.
(also available at Five Dimes)

David Smail to beat Gareth Paddison -118 @ Centrebet
Paddison was opposed last week as it was clear that he had been overpriced following his top-10 finish in the Heineken Classic. He missed the cut and having done the same on this course last year, he could very well do the same again this week. Smail's form has dipped after successive top-5 finishes in his first two starts of 2004, but he is by far the better player and a significant improvement in form is expected now that he is back on home soil.

Jimmy Walker to beat Gareth Paddison -110 @ Five Dimes [4.5pts]
Opposing Paddison with an outright selection. Clear case of expecting one player to at least finish in the top-10 and another to struggle to make the cut.

Euan Walters to beat Mahal Pearce -114 @ Centrebet [3pts]
Bit of a danger of a letdown after Walters secured his Nationwide Tour Card with an easy victory last week, but there is a big gulf in form between these two players which should more than compensate. Since the Australasian Tour began last December, Walters has played eight times, finishing in the top-20 on six occasions and winning once. In the same period, Pearce has also played eight times, missing four cuts and just once finishing inside the top-40. Barring a hangover, this should be easy for Walters.

Final update: 4-2-0; +0.83pts

Gutschewski/Downes WON by 3
Gutschewski/Gow LOST by 4
O'Hern/Gardiner WON by 6
Smail/Paddison WON by 6
Walker/Paddison LOST by 9
Walters/Pearce WON by 5

Offset the losses on the outrights to a small degree. A good performance overall, but it was costly to lose the triple-play matchup. Walker only needed to make the cut to win this match - Paddison finished 2nd last over the weekend - but the outright selection had three double-bogeys in the last five holes to miss the cut by five.