Heineken Classic

Spread plays

Summary: Loss 2.85 Pts on the week which isn't as bad as it was looking. The post cut plays helped the situation and came a shot or two away from clearing all debt.

Pre Round Three Trades (Summary: Much better position than we were. Monty fell outside the Top 10 and although Kjeldsen also fell backwards, Fowler is now 60th. The decision to close Senior has also proved in this instance to have been a good move.)

Buy Colin Montgomerie FP for 0.5 pts at 9 with Sporting Index M/U 13, Profit 2 Pts.
82 players have made the weekend but only 9 shots separate all of them. Therefore, my advice is to take some action to try and level things up by buying Monty again. We effectively now have a double play at 18 and with 36 holes to go it isn't inconceivable that Monty (or any other player near the top) falls backwards quickly.

Buy Peter Fowler FP for 0.5 pts at 33 with Sporting Index M/U 41.5, Profit 4.25 Pts.
For similar reasons to buying Monty again, Fowler is -2 and in a tie for 37th. The upside here is greater than the down and although Fowler had excellent claims coming into this week, he is now 7 shots behind the leaders but more importantly has 45 players either level with him or within 2 shots. This is a fair buy therefore at 33. Note though, IG agree and go 34-37 so trades will need to be made quickly, although it is also 33 at Spreadex.

Buy Peter Senior FP for 0.5 pts at 43 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 3.5 Pts.
Senior scraped in but I have him now around 46/47 so even if this trade backfires I do believe that taking a hit will pay in the long term. So, rather than losing potentially 7 pts, we will take 3.5pts just now. However don't buy this trade if not already on the sell. Even although it is a buy rather than a sell, I wouldn't advise anyone taking the risk that a buy at this price entails.

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: I woke up this morning and turned on the TV to see Peter Senior hacking his way round a short par 4 and feared the worst. He managed though to scratch his way into the weekend whilst Bjorn failed. That has given us some leverage from what was a poor position, although Monty is now a problem.)

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Not a good start, I am almost resigned to the fact that Faldo and Norman will M/U at 50 so it leaves us an uphill task. Kjeldsen has started well but opposing Bjorn and supporting Senior has so far cancelled each out with both shooting 73. Finally no worries over Monty even although he shot 68.)

Buy Colin Montgomerie FP for 0.5 pts at 26.8 with Spreadfair M/U 13, Loss 6.9 Pts.
This one is a play on price and price only. Monty has a 2nd last week in Singapore as current form. His Tour form is good, a first and fourth in completed events over the last 6 years, but i really do think that the Monty of 2005 is probably not worthy of a quote as low as 26.8 at the exchange.

Buy Thomas Bjorn FP for 0.5 pts at 25.9 with Spreadfair M/U 50, Profit 11.45 Pts.
On Bjorn's last two visits to Australia he has missed a cut and finished 57th. Previous to that though he has played well. However, his price is just far too low in this company at under 26. He was Top 5 last week but his form in Asia as opposed to Australia does seem better.

Sell Peter Senior FP for 0.5 pts at 36 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Loss 7 Pts.
Eight events in 04' at home seen Peter post 5 top 15 places with his worst performance a m/c in the stableford scoring event, the ANZ. Here, he was 11th, and was 12th last week in Asia. He is far too high at 36.

Sell Nick Faldo FP for 0.5 pts at 36 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Profit 7 Pts.
Faldo recently has played better in these co-sanctioned trips round the world than he tends to play at home. His last 6 events on this tour have produced 4 Top 15's. Like Senior, 36 seems high considering past Tour success.

Sell Soren Kjeldsen FP for 0.5 pts at 41 with Sporting Index M/U 36.5, Profit 2.25 Pts.
Not the greatest Tour record but he did finish 4th on this course 2 years ago. Last week he finished 33rd and it is noticeable that he makes a lot of cuts for someone of his standing in the game. Only 8 missed cuts in the last two years suggest he is a steady player who occasionally has a good week and contends.

Sell Greg Norman FP for 0.5 pts at 39 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 5.5 Pts.
Incredible record at home even for someone months from the Champions tour. 14 Top 25's in his last 17 events, and although as he gets a year older it gets tougher, to sell at 39 on those stats alone is value.