New Zealand Open

Spread plays

Round Four (Final Summary: Well, in the end Chalmers, Nitties and Senior averaged 65 on day 4 so no complaints leading to an overall profit of 22.7 Pts.)

Round Three (Summary: None of the remaining players are in the Top 30 so it looks like this could end up being a level week on this tour at best unless one of the sells shoots really low tonight.)

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: Campbell got himself over the cut line for a small period but along with Lyle and Smail he goes home early. Of the four remaining, 3 are sells, but of them, only Chalmers is in a half decent position. Dougherty got in late on but is some way back.)

Sell James Nitties FP for 0.5 Pts at 36 with Spreadex M/U 27.5, Profit 4.25 pts.
Two more trades for R2. Nitties is -3 and is out early tomorrow. He has a fair record on this tour with only 1 missed cut in 12 so 36 seems a couple of points too high based on the current state of play.

Sell Jarrod Lyle FP for 0.5 Pts at 38 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 6 pts.
This one is a bit riskier but with the points banked it allows us the leeway to play this bet. There are 27 players tied on -2 at 73rd place so there is a fair risk Lyle doesn't get in. His stats though for yesterdays round were good and maybe he just felt a mental letdown on last weeks efforts. If he can get through this with an early start then we can look at the scenario again tomorrow but it is worth a go at a 6pt risk that he fairs better today and moves forward.


Sell David Smail FP for 0.5 Pts at 34 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 8 pts.
Sell Michael Campbell FP for 0.5 Pts at 47 with IG Sport M/U 50, Loss 1.5 pts.
Basically the reasoning here is that weather forecasts suggest that the players out early morning will get the better conditions. With Smail on the cut line that gives him an advantage to get in. Campbell obviously is some way back but for the want of 1.5 pts, it may be best to take the profit and run. Certainly 28 was far too low yesterday anyway so a quick 9.5 pt profit over 1 day is acceptable. Also, our other three runners are playing at the side of the tee times that suits us, the sells early and Dougherty late. This puts over 13pts in the pot and will make further trades easier to work with.
 

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Good start, all buys are below 70th place currently and Senior is Top 30. Only Chalmers is causing concern at -1, but then its all about the cut tonight as always and whether the four players below it make it or not.)

Buy David Smail FP for 0.5 Pts at 26.1 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Profit 11.35 pts.
Smail has a fairly average home tour record. In 18 events since 01' he has posted two Top 10's, a further 5 Top 20's but missed 5 cuts. The record though is fairly lop-sided towards long term rather than short term with 2 of those missed cuts coming in his last 6 events. He was 18th at the weekend in Melbourne which is fair but he does perform far better on the Japan tour where he spends most of his time than he does back in the Australasian events.

Buy Michael Campbell FP for 0.5 Pts at 28 with Spreadex M/U 50, Profit 11 pts.
The Rest of the World's answer to David Duval? Harsh possibly, but Campbell has fallen from grace quite dramatically in the past year or so. Since August Campbell has played in 11 events. For FP purposes he has finished as a 50 M/U in 10 of them. The only bright spot was a 21st in Australia back in December. You can make a case for supporting Campbell with his 2nd in Scotland last July, his win in Ireland the year previous and the fact that this won't be the best field he will play in this year but the scores don't lie.

Sell Greg Chalmers FP for 0.5 Pts at 32 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 18.5, Profit 6.41 pts.
Chalmers averages 25 on FP's at home over the last few seasons and in an event where there is a dearth of quality, 32 may seem a bit high. Last week, Chalmers finished 51st after a poor R4 but it was noticeable that he had a poor week in the Accuracy stats but was 3rd in putting. This is the 6th time in his last 7 events he has been high up the putting stats and if he can get his Driver working to his normal level then 32 should end up looking a good number come the weekend.

Sell Peter Senior FP for 0.5 Pts at 33 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 22.5, Profit 5 pts.
Strange price on Senior who has a particularly good tour record. 69th last week was poor but there is no getting away from the fact that a continual sell at 33 (in usually better company) over the last two full seasons would produce a near 70% win to loss return and an average FP overall of mid 20's.

Buy Nick Dougherty FP for 0.5 Pts at 27.1 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 27.5, Profit 0.19 pts.
Final pre-start bet. Dougherty won two weeks ago in Singapore, then had an off week last week in Australia. His Aus Tour record though is average with 11 starts, 6 M/U's of 50, and three top 10's. We may not see the best of Dougherty until he has had time off to reflect on his win and accept in his mind he has now reached a new level in his career. Certainly, if you take Dougherty's record and conveniently forget the win then 27.1 becomes a great price. It is though on offer because of what he achieved this past fortnight. I still feel, however, that this price is a little low.