Panama Masters

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Gonzalez 35th
Carballo mc
Pilkington mc

Very poor finish. Had high hopes with Pilkington 5th after two rounds, but a 3rd round 78 ended any hopes.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Rodolfo Gonzalez to win 16/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Can't bring myself to back Sebastian Fernandez again, so will opt for Gonzalez of the leading players. A 3rd place finish last week represented his fifth top-5 finish in seven starts on the Tour de Las Americas and that is a very impressive strike rate, particularly as there is one win in that run. He has played here in each of the last three seasons and finished higher up the leaderboard each time, so represents a good opportunity for a return.

Miguel Carballo to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Carballo also played particularly well at the weekend in the windy conditions to finish 3rd in Costa Rica. Not quite the same top-5/start ration as Gonzalez, but three top-5 finishes in his last six starts is not a bad ratio at these odds. He made his debut on this course last year and was in contention over the first two days before falling back. This time, in better form and with some course experience behind him, he should do much better.

Mark Pilkington to win 66/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Very surprised at these odds. Pilkington did endure a miserable 2004 having lost the European Tour Card that he had held for a number of years and it clearly affected his confidence. He closed the season with five missed cuts in six starts, including two from three in the co-sanctioned events in this region. In the event that he did play at the weekend, he dropped from 11th after three rounds with a final round 79. Confidence was clearly a factor, but time is also clearly a good healer and he has worked hard over the winter months and now much more positive in his attitude. It was on view last week when he improved his leaderboard position in every round to finish 5th. And now he returns to a course on which he took Miguel Fernandez to a playoff last year - though Fernandez was incredibly lucky to get there: his drive on last hole was heading out of bounds, but hit a tree and ended up on the fairway from where he made birdie! The golfing gods were not with Pilkington last year, so this course owes him a victory.