European Masters

Summary: Bets 13, Wins 5, Losses 8. Loss = 26.25 Pts. Another week goes by with a major dent being felt in the profits that had been built up. The bad run has to end sometime as our average loss per bet in the last few weeks on FP suggests the firms are pricing these players wrong by 5 or 6 points which of course they are not. The scoring average of the players we have opposed in running is under an average of 68 strokes in 21 rounds for the last two weeks which is an incredible score, the equal of Woods at his best. 

Pre Round Three Trades

Buy Paul Casey FP at 22 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 3, Loss 9.5 Pts
Buy Miguel Angel Jimenez FP at 23 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 13.5, Loss 4.75 Pts
Looking at the stats after R2, it is apparent that both players, especially Casey, have relied a lot on putting to get them out of some poor approach shots this week. With that in mind and a price that is arguably a couple of points lower than what would be a reasonable midpoint, I suggest we buy both.

Pre Round Two Trades

Buy Gary Emerson over Andre Bossert 18H MB at 3 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Loss 0.75 Pts
Sell Emanuele Canonica over Barry Lane 18H MB at 1.6 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U 16, Loss 3.6 Pts
Playing up the Canonica Lane bet again at a slightly better price. On the other bet, Bossert shot 69 yesterday but his previous form is terrible with only 3 other scores in the 60's in his last 18 rounds. He has missed 10 of his last 12 cuts and even although he beat Emerson yesterday by one he should be a heavier underdog than he is.

Pre Round One Trades

Buy Raphael Jacquelin FP at 27 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 50, Profit 11.5 Pts

Buy Ricardo Gonzalez FP at 34 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 26, Loss 4 Pts

Buy Emanuele Canonica FP at 32 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 10.5, Loss 10.25 Pts
All 3 selections are based on price where I feel that they should all be at least 3 points higher. Jacquelin has a reasonable shout this week but his stats suggest that 27 is giving him too much credit on the FP markets. The other two players should just be quoted much higher than they are.

Sell Robert Coles on IG Sport Challenger Index at 8 for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Profit 2 Pts
Sell Simon Dyson on IG Sport Challenger Index at 10 for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Profit 2.5 Pts
A double play on the challengers index at IG where I feel that the other 8 players have a far better case and therefore the prices for these two players should arguably be two points lower for each.
(Note: The other 8 are: Hedblom, Lafeber, Broadhurst, Khan, Karlsson, Kjeldsen, O' Malley and Rumford)

Sell Henrik Stenson over Raphael Jacquelin 72H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 20, Loss 10 Pts
Happy to oppose Jacquelin on FP but equally happy to get with him here on a match bet off levels. Stenson, for all his credentials, just can't seem to play here and his scoring average over the last 3 years is really poor at nearly 2 over par. Although i am a great believer in current over course sometimes a course just suits or doesn't and that info can't be ignored. Jacquelin has current form of 8th and 9th in the last 4 weeks against Stenson's 47th and 13th and here Jacquelin has a 15th in 02' against that poor record of Stenson's.

Sell Emanuele Canonica / Simon Khan 18H MB at 0.3 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 3 Pts
Sell Emanuele Canonica / Barry Lane 18H MB at 1.3 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Loss 2.9 Pts
Sell Jarrod Moseley / Mattias Eliasson 18H MB at 2 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Profit 0.5 Pts
I assume that the fact we are opposing Canonica in both his matches and buying his FP means I have a different view of his chances than the compilers do. It does leave us a little top loaded on Canonica but at the prices I couldn't ignore what I perceive to be value. In the case of Eliasson, he has three Top 40 finishes in his last 3 events against Moseley who has only played three times since Loch Lomond and may be a little rusty on the first day.