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Dunlop Phoenix Tournament
Outright plays (1.5 units):
Sergio Garcia to win 12/1 e.w. @
Stan James
Very surprised to see such a large price from Stan James - best price of
8/1 elsewhere. He has played in this event twice, finishing 2nd on both
occasions (1999 and 2002), the first via a playoff loss to Thomas Bjorn
and the second by a single shot. He has played in one other Japan Tour
event in between - the 2001 Casio World Open - and finished 3rd in that
event, so his ability to play in Japan cannot be doubted. His form this
year can be doubted, but it is noticeable that in three of his last four
events, he has finished 12th in the American Express Championship after
being 1st round leader, 6th in the Open de Madrid after opening with a
65 and 7th in the Volvo Masters. He is certainly approaching the form
that should keep up his impressive record in Japan.
Shingo Katayama to win 16/1 e.w. @
Victor
Chandler
Katayama already has an impressive record in Japan - he has finished in
the top-3 of the Japan Tour Money List each year since 2000 and has won
twice this year. He is in good form with a win, a 2nd place and a 3rd
place finish in his last five starts and is a former winner of this
event. Can't see him being too far from the leaderboard on Sunday.
David Gossett to win 50/1 e.w. @
Stan James and
Victor
Chandler
Rather more speculative play here. Gossett has played in this event once
(2001) and played well. He was 2nd after 36 holes and played with Duval
in the final group before struggling for one round. He still managed a
top-10 finish though and was a creditable 12th in his other Japan Tour
appearance - the 2002 Suntory Open. His form has been patchy this year
on the PGA Tour, but there have been clear signs of improvement in the
last few months and in an event that has been kind to non-Japanese
players, he should not be at these odds.
Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Hidemichi Tanaka to beat Hiroyuki Fujita -118 @
Centrebet
[3 units]
No doubting Fujita's form in the last month - 3rd, 6th and 2nd in his
last three starts - but Tanaka has been even more impressive in recent
months. He has had four top-6 finishes in his last eight starts on the
PGA Tour and comes into this event after a three-week break. He would
have been an outright selection had Gossett not been available at such
high odds.
Sergio Garcia to beat Lee Westwood +100 @
Expekt
[4.5 units]
Can't believe Westwood is the favourite here. Yes, he has won twice in
the last three months, but since his last win his finishes have been
35th (limited field), 47th, withdrawn and 42nd. In their last six common
events this year, Garcia has prevailed every time. Backing the outright
selection again.
David Gossett to beat David Smail -118 @
Expekt
[3 units]
Smail has missed his last three cuts on the Japan Tour against much
weaker opposition than on view this week. He should struggle against one
of the outright selections.
Hank Kuehne to beat Charl Schwartzel -118 @
Expekt
Simply opposing Schwartzel. He shot to fame with his 3rd place finish in
the South African Open in January and tried his luck on the European
Tour, but apart from a couple of minor events failed to deliver. He must
have the highest 4th round scoring average on the Tour as well! He
recorded his best finish in four months (11th) when he returned to South
Africa for Platinum Classic, but he has shown he doesn't travel well and
this will be his debut in Japan.
Final update:
Matchups: 3-1-0; +3.00 units
Tanaka/Fujita WON by 10
Garcia/Westwood LOST by 1
Gossett/Smail WON by 6
Kuehne/Schwartzel WON by 11
Outrights: 1-2; +5.63 units
Garcia 6th
Katayama 53rd
Gossett 3rd
Profitable event, but was still stunned when I saw the final
leaderboard this morning. Last night, there was a very healthy lead in
the all matchups (Kuehne/Schwartzel had been decided at the cut), Garcia
had a three-shot lead having led the event throughout and Gossett was in
7th place with a good chance of a place win ... But then Garcia shot 78
to not only lose the event, but finish outside the place positions by a
shot and also lose the 11-shot lead that he had over Westwood in the
triple-play in the matchups! If he had shot 73, I would have been 21.75
units better off. Stunned.
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