Nippon Series JT Cup

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Katayama 15th
Smail 4th
Conran 14th

Smail provided the only win on the outrights in any Tour this week and that was only a share of a place payout. Not a good week.

Outright plays (1pt):

Shingo Katayama to win 5/1 @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and Ladbrokes
Can't see beyond the leading players for this limited-field end-of-season event and none moreso than the #1 player on Tour, Katayama. He won this title in 2000, he won this title two years later in 2002, so surely he must win it this year! With 11 of his last 13 starts on the Japan Tour ending with a top-8 finish, consistency is not a problem and certainly 5/1 looks at least a point too high.

David Smail to win 12/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods
Passed over Smail last week as I thought the travelling from Spain for the World Cup would have impaired his chances. Quite wrong! Absolutely not too tired last week, hopefully he can keep the momentum going for the final event on Tour as his course form is also supportive: 4th and 2nd in the last two years. Apart from Sportingbet/Sporting Odds who offer 11/1, no-one goes higher than 8s on Smail.

Steven Conran to win 15/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods
A number of other firms offer 16s on Conran, but there are better place odds at GolfingGods. Conran competed in the Australian Open last week and finished in the top-15, which was just a continuation of the good form that he has shown in the last three months since winning the Hisamitsu-KBC Augusta. Having made his debut in this event last year, when he finished 6th, he should be better placed to mount a title challenge and is playing much better anyway.

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