Okinawa Open

FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -4.92pts

Tanihara 38th
Kase 2nd
Fukabori dns
Singh 2nd

That will teach me to deviate from my standard betting tactics! I tried to greatly improve the odds of reaching a season target rather than looking at what was best on an event basis and it backfired. Singh let this event slip in the final holes  where he started with a double-bogey. But still only needing to par the last hole to force a playoff with a player who had never even achieved a top-10 finish until now, he had a bogey. What irony that Yang beat Hoch in the matchup and I would have finished the season up 400pts until the Singh play!

Further outright play (6pts staked):

Jeev Milkha Singh to win 2/5 @ SkyBet and Bet365
This is purely a hedge play on Kase, nothing more; the second hedge play on an outright selection this season. So ignore if not on Kase already. The final event of the season and the target of 400pts profit is very close. It either needs Kase to win the event or Yong-Eun Yang to make up a three-shot deficit on Scott Hoch in the one remaining matchup. Despite Kase being in sole 2nd place at the moment, the odds are heavily tipped against either one happening, so will side with the player with a four-shot lead and who closed strongly in the 3rd round. Had he faltered, there may have been more hope for Kase, but four shots is a comfortable margin. With this maximum stake hedge play, Kase only needs to remain in the top-five for the 400pts threshold to be reached; it would be a poor way to end the season if such a great effort from Kase came up just too short.

Outright plays (1pt):

Hideto Tanihara to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Opting for home players in this end-of-year, though start-of-new-season event. Tanihara is the defending champion, though he did win this event on a course a few miles away from Naha Golf Club, and he has shown a return of form recently with two top-5 finishes in his last three starts, including the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament which has had by far the strongest field on the Japan Tour this season. He ranked 2nd in greens in regulation that week and he can play as well this week, he should certainly secure another top-5 finish.

Hideki Kase to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Take out the Casio World Open and Dunlop Phoenix Tournament which are special events on this Tour because of their strong international field and Kase has been in a major player on the Japan Tour recently. He showed the first signs of this current form in July and has since recorded nine top-10 finishes, including one win and was in the top-2 all week for the season-ending JT Cup until a late falter a couple of weeks ago. Clearly playing well enough to contend against this weaker field.

Keiichiro Fukabori to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
No doubting Fukabori's form either. He had been in first place just aheadof Kase heading into the last round of the JT Cup, but he also faltered on the last day. He ranked 1st in greens in regulation this week and, taking out the Taiheiyo Masters and the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament for their strong international fields, Fukabori has ranked in the top-10 in greens in regulation in his last eight tournaments. Playing that well from tee-to-green, it only takes a moderately warm putter to challenge for the title and with the event being played on a new course, basic tee-to-green should be central as the players slowly learn the greens at Naha GC.