Mitsui Sumitomo Visa Taiheiyo Masters

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Taniguchi 9th
Conran 19th
Nakajima 34th

Another near-miss on this Tour. Taniguchi was in contention for a place win throughout the event, but finished two shots shy at the end. He was never going to catch Darren Clarke who had been top-ranked by some distance, but I didn't think he would win while playing on his third continent in three weeks!

Outright plays (1pt):

Toru Taniguchi to win 20/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, BlueSq and Coral
Avoiding the European players for this week at least and siding with the most in-form player on the Japan Tour. With two wins and a 5th place finish in his last three starts, he looks to be perfectly prepared for this event having taken a break last week. The list of winners in recent years - Westwood, Izawa, Nakajima, etc - shows that this course is a second-shot course and that suits Taniguchi's game in particular. He had had top-10 finishes in each of his three visits to the Gotemba course at The Taiheiyo Club before last year and to match those finishes should be the least of his ambitions this week.

Steven Conran to win 66/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Conran is another who is in a particularly good run of form on the Japan Tour. He has won once and finished in the top-8 five times in his last six events. Like Taniguchi, the strength in his game lies in his approach shots and around the green so he should find the Gotemba course to his liking. He did so for three rounds last year until a final round 77 took him out of contention for a top-5 finish, but he is playing far better twelve months on and could certainly be challenging for a title again this week.

Tsuneyuki Nakajima to finish in the top-five 37.5/1 @ IASbet
Didn't expect to backing this particular Senior, but, as outlined above, this is not a course that punishes players who are short off the tee. Nakajima even won this title as late as two years ago - he also won the inaugural event in 1985 - and the stats suggest that while such a win may be highly unlikely, there is a lot of value in these place odds. He has finished in the top-5 in two of his last twelve starts and was in the top-10 throughout the event last year until a final-round 76 meant that he finished 11th. He was still only four shots from a top-5 finish and there is little to suggest that he will not go as close again even though he has just turned 50.