BellSouth Classic

Finishing Positions (0.5 pt Stakes)

Final Summary: Well, the closing bet on McCarron was a good move. It just seemed like a bad day would take anyone near the top quite swiftly down and it happened to McCarron. Although it didn't really matter a great deal to the end result it did cancel out commission at Spreadfair. Mickelson performed really well after a poor start on Saturday and we therefore came out the week virtually level but it could have been a lot lot worse. Profit 4.90 Pts

Pre Round Three Trades

Buy Scott McCarron at 8 with IG Sport M/U 35, Profit 13.5 Pts
Looking at the leaderboard, it is not beyond possibilities that if McCarron shoots anything above 74 today, he could finish well down the field. When you put all the possibilities in the mix it could be safe to get out at 8 and take a reduced but guaranteed profit. Having lost 5 pts on the Portuguese event, possibly 8.5 pts on Mickelson who performed excellently in R2 we can take around that number here and be left with a scenario that for every place Mickelson finishes away from first if he doesn't win it becomes a half point profit. I would hate to come out of this week a loser just because McCarron has a really poor last round so will not take the risk. It is of course up to the individual whether they want to make the same play but for P & L purposes this bet will be closed at 8.

Summary: At the moment, McCarron leads and Mickelson is in a group of players chasing, one shot behind. With one round to go I would like to think we will make a profit on this event although one caveat is that the leaderboard is fairly bunched with 5 shots separating approx. 30 players. So we still require a good day from McCarron tomorrow.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: With R1 not finishing we won't have any updated prices for R2. However, we are now at an advantage as there just seems no way that those on the 10th hole in R1 can play a further 61 holes in two days. So, if it is to be a 54H event then having our sell 2nd and our buy 63rd is a good position to be in.)

Sell Scott McCarron at 34.8 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 35, Loss 0.1 Pt.
I would assume we will have a quiet week this week. An event in between two that are as large as the Players and the Masters will always have that worry that the better players are using it as a "prep-race". McCarron though probably counts this as his favourite event of the year. He has won it twice, finished 4th another year, but has also played poorly in other years. In the past I can remember buying his FP and having some success as it has generally been low here. This year though it is quite high at 34.8 and an argument could be put forward that McCarron is coming into this event in better form than in the past. Three Top 20's this year is fair form and his record in the last 2 years when he performed poorly was nowhere near as good. He has missed his last two cuts but this is his course whereas Bay Hill and Sawgrass never will be. The icing on the cake though is a putting record this season that sees him 3rd out of 185 players. His 2004 final placing was 76th. So with this being a course with little defence bar weather, this could turn into a putting event. 

Buy Phil Mickelson at 18 with Spreadex M/U 1, Loss 8.5 Pts
Mickelson has spent every available moment in the last two weeks at Augusta. He spent last Monday and Tuesday there and seemingly played 36 holes there this Tuesday. If it wasn't for the new rule in place where if you don't play the Wednesday pro-am you get disqualified from the weeks event I wouldn't be surprised if Phil would have turned up at Sugarloaf in time for his tee-off. He has played here 6 times and has 5 Top 10's and a M/C. What we are doing here though is betting on the chance that his level of commitment this week is not 100%. If he goes out and gets himself Top 20 after R1 he will obviously try to win the event. However, anything short of that will make him slack off as he has done that so many times in the past. He will definitely be using this week to try out some of the shots he will need next week and if they come off he will contend but it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will look to get out of Duluth and get in a car to Augusta at the first available opportunity. That may be before Sunday night.  
 

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