Dunhill Championship

Pre Event Trades

Bet 1 - Buy Maartin Lafeber FP at 32 with Sporting Index for 0.5pts. M/U 5

Lafeber started his season last week with a 45th place in the SA Open. He has played on the SA tour now 8 times since 1998. His positions are (course finishes in bold) 77/mc/mc/22/43/mc/44/45. That is an average FP Make-Up over 44 and suggests that he isn't at home on these different greens. 32 is a good offer, with Cantor taking a different view and offering 37.

Bet 2 - Buy Lee Westwood FP at 22 with SportsSpread for 0.5pts. M/U 8.5

The same reasons for putting up Westwood last week apply here. The jury is still out in whether he is back to his best, and if he was he would be around the high teens, if not the low 30s. So at 19-22 with Sportspread the assumption is the former which i am not sure of. This price is low when you consider Justin Rose with course figures of 2/1/7 is as high as 22-25 with one firm.

Bet 3 - Sell Stephen Dodd FP at 34 with Sporting Index for 0.5pts. M/U 50

Welshman Dodd has a very average record in his native continent, but when he travels over to the Sunshine Tour his play goes up a notch or two. 6 visits here has resulted in finishes of 34/66/30/8/17/9. The 9th place being last week at Erinvale and those in bold his course record. So we have a chance to sell a player in good current form at a price level to his worst performance here in Houghton.

Bet 4 - Sell Hennie Otto FP at 29 with Spreadex for 0.5pts. M/U 50

Otto was advised at 30 last week and made us a profit. Although his course form is poor he really should have the game for this course setup. With an average FP in S Africa of low 20's, 29 is still a good price to sell at.

Bet 5 - Sell Paul Mcginley FP at 34 with Spreadex for 0.5pts. M/U 50

Also, playing up a winning trade from last week. Mcginley averages MU's of less than 20 on this tour and only a poor starting 76 last week prevented him from getting further up the leaderboard. 34 is far too high for a player who has finished 16th and 5th in his last 2 Dunhill's.

Bet 6 - Sell L Oosthuizen FP at 34 with Cantor Sport for 0.5pts. M/U 50

Selling again a player we backed last week. The reasons for doing so still apply. A great record for a youngster on this tour and although we suffered a 1.5pt loss last week he was Top 15 with two holes to play but suffered a horrendous finish falling back 5 strokes to par. He wasn't the only player to struggle with the tough finish at Erinvale though.

Bet 7 - Sell J Kingston FP at 30 with IG Sport for 0.5pts M/U 8.5

Kingston is in a rich vein of form and his record on the Sunshine Tour is a good few strokes better on average than he is being quoted here. Well worth an interest at the price offered.

Bet 8 - Sell Robert Karlsson over Scott Dunlap 18H Match Bet at 1 with Spreadex for 0.5pts. M/U -13

Karlsson missed the cut last week by some way (76,76 ) and in a previous visit to this course in 1997 shot 74,69 to miss the cut. He is up against Dunlap an American who has taken to playing tours round the world. Dunlap's Sunshine Tour record is much better having finished in the Top 10 8 times in 17 attempts which includes a win and three 2nd places. His record at Houghton is also superior, finishing 5th, 58th and 15th in three attempts. Dunlap should be the favourite here by at least 3 pts.

Post Round 1 Trades

Bet 9 - Buy Scott Dunlap over Robert Karlsson 18H Match Bet at 1.5 with IG Sport for 0.5pts M/U 22

This was value yesterday gaining 1 and in all honesty it is still so now that you have to give up 1.5pts start for R2. Dunlap won in R1 by a stroke as Karlsson had his best round of the season so far (a 72) but Dunlap should still be favourite by a good few points more.

Post Round 2 Trades

Bet 10 - Sell Robert Derksen over Craig Lile 18H Match Bet at 0 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U -25

Lile is favourite with the two other firms who have priced this up. I agree with them. Both had fine rounds today (Friday) and are handily placed but Lile is the better player on this tour. In 5 events in South Africa, this is the first time Derksen has made the cut and until this week had not broken par in four previous rounds at Houghton Golf Club. Lile should be favourite by 3-4 points.

Post Round 3 Trades

Bet 11 - Buy Trevor Immelman over Joachim Backstrom 18H Match Bet at 13 with Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U 19

Both players shot 64 in R3 to get into contention but Immelman has had far more experience of being in one of the last few pairings on a Sunday than his opponent and is expected to outscore him tomorrow. We pay a high price for the pleasure but in all honesty it is still a great price for buyers. Backstrom has had one top 20 in 8 Sunshine Tour attempts in the last 2 years and has certainly put himself in a good position again this week. However, all things considered Immelman is a fair buy at 13 and is worth the risk that the potentially large downside would bring.

Summary

A very disappointing week on FP's where, apart from Kingston, the rest were losing bets. Westwood and Lafeber performed well and were losers but that is the chance you take on FP buying. The ones that were really disappointing were the 50 M/U FP sells. The saving grace on the week were the four 18H bets which were good value and all panned out as hoped. The 18H bets produced an overall profit of 32.75pts which went someway to offsetting the poor return on the FP's of -43.5pts. At least the PGA spreads have performed a little better and should hopefully set us up for a better run, as we have now come out the early weeks and have far more current form to help us study the events coming up.