Dunhill Championship

Loss on the week - 18 Pts. Weekend went totally against us bar Maritz.

Post Round Three Trades

Buy Tim Clark at 24 with IG Sport (M/U 11.5, Profit -6.25 pts)
Clark is now Tied 28th but the leaderboard is tight enough to suggest the latest quote from IG is a little low. However, unlike last week I would be a little worried in such a poor field to advise a reverse play like last week. I would pitch Clark around 27/28 so 24 is a bit low for taking out a completely new trade. It is low enough though to take an 8pt profit on the original trade and accept it and move on.

Post Round Two Trades

Buy Marcel Siem at 31 with IG Sport (M/U 7, Profit -12 pts)
Siem followed a 76 in R1 today with a 69 and is currently Tied 42nd. However, with 79 players making the cut, Siem is priced a little low at 31 considering he is nearer last place (effectively 50th for our purposes) as he is to 10th. With all the advantages that FP buying brings he should be mid 30's and not 31 as quoted by IG.

Post Round One Trades

Sell Tim Clark at 40 with IG Sport (M/U 11.5, Profit 14.25 pts)
Clark is in 115th place, and is a full 3 shots short of the cut line. However, as stated in the previews below, this is not a classy event. Sporting Index go 37-40 and that is possibly nearer the real chance of Clark. I suggest we sell him today, full in the knowledge he could miss the cut but if he does get in, we can then re-assess where we stand. Before today he was a lowly 15-18 so there is little doubt if he makes the weekend he could possibly be too low tomorrow at this time. Clark previous to this week had finished 6th, 8th and 11th on the PGA Tour in October, and has five Top 10's in his last nine Sunshine Tour events. 

Tournament Trades (Finishing Positions @ 0.5pt stakes)

Sell Andrew McLardy at 26 with Spreadex (M/U 50, Profit -12 pts)
This event really is poor, so poor that I wouldn't put anyone off selling Els at 6 or Clark at 15 as they realistically should be lower even than those quotes. However, it does give us a chance to trade 3 players in the mid 20's who themselves should possibly be as low as around the 19-20 mark. We are going to totally concentrate on form within this Tour alone for our first two trades. To bring in worldwide form would have you treating this as a 72H match between the aforementioned 2. McLardy in 04' has 6 Top 25's in 7 including a win (on this course). This type of home form is repeated with our next choice.

Sell Hennie Otto at 27 with Spreadex (M/U 43, Profit -8 pts)
Otto has had a horrendous year, worldwide, but he is still a force at home with 6 Top 20's in 8 events, with one of the other two being a R1 withdrawal. His course form, like McLardy includes a win, in 2003. Otto is as high as 27 due to current form in Europe which in 2004 was shocking. We are therefore taking a chance on him improving on home turf.

Sell Martin Maritz at 27 with Spreadex (M/U 15, Profit 6 pts)
This is a more speculative choice. His form here is sketchy although he has a 7th and 22nd on this course. Martin is of sufficient quality though (4 top 10's in Europe this year) to give the benefit of the doubt to here.