South African Airways Open

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Bradley Dredge to beat Charl Schwartzel -110 @ Sirbet
Schwartzel shot to prominence with a 3rd place finish in this event last year, but he has struggled greatly on the European Tour and has been unable to recapture his form on home soil either. Since last year's event he has finished outside the top-10 in four Southern Africa Tour events and finished only 16th in the British Open qualifying event last week. Dredge is just very consistent, both in Europe and when in South Africa.
(also available at Pinnacle)

Paul McGinley to beat David Frost +105 @ Pinnacle [2 units]
McGinley has a very good record in events in South Africa, very rarely finishing outside the top-25 and while his form last year was disappointing, it was at least equal to that of Frost, who has played in South Africa only once in the last three years, missing the cut in the 2001 South African PGA Championship. Too attractive odds to ignore.
(also available at Sirbet)

Paul McGinley to beat Soren Hansen -118 @ Expekt [2 units]
It was an even more disappointing 2003 for Hansen, who won the Irish Open in 2002. Given that he has only made the weekend once in six starts in this country, this should be another difficult week for the Dane.

David Howell to beat Jarrod Moseley -111 @ Centrebet
Moseley is certainly in good form, but is opposed here because he has yet to play in South Africa. Experience is needed on the grasses on these courses and it is only Howell in this matchup who has that. Siding again with the outright selection who was a top-15 finisher on this course last year.

David Howell to beat Maarten Lafeber -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Lafeber has been very competitive when in Europe and currently stands 6th in both the European Tour's Ryder Cup Lists, but he has certainly struggled on South African courses. In seven starts, he has failed to reach the weekend on three occasions and has a best finish of 22nd. He will also be making his debut on this course and so is another who is opposed with an outright selection.

Justin Rose to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -111 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
Similar story in opposing Jimenez. He finished the 2003 in great form, but has poor form in South Africa and has yet to play this course. His only starts on the Southern Africa Tour were two events in 1996 when he missed the cut and finished 35th. He has also played in the Sun City Challenge twice (1999 and 2000), but on both occasions finished outside the top-10 in a very small field. Have to side with an outright selection again.
(also available at Stan James and Expekt)

Final update: 4-1-1; +6.94 units

Dredge/Schwartzel LOST by 2
McGinley/Frost WON by 5
McGinley/Hansen WON by 5
Howell/Moseley TIED (Dead-heat)
Howell/Lafeber WON by 1
Rose/Jimenez WON by 1

Good return on the matchups to more than offset the losses on the outrights. Was rather glad that there were no more than 18 holes in the last round. Howell almost surrendered both his wins when he dropped five shots over the last seven holes and Rose just hung on to beat Jimenez by a shot after dropping three shots over the same stretch.