South African Airways Open

Pre Event Trades

Bet 1 - Sell Louis Oosthuizen FP at 33 at Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. M/U 34.5

The facts - form figures on the South African tour in 2003 of 14/29/14/22/5. Shot a round of 57 on a par 72 course when he was 20 years old. 14th in this event last season on this course. His worldwide average FP away from his homeland is still less than this price, and finally, he qualified for this year's Open by finishing tied 2nd in Regional qualifying in South Africa last week. This bet may or may not make a profit this week, only time will tell but what is certain is that this price is wrong and is so by some way. He should be at least 6 points less than he is at Sporting.

Bet 2 - Buy Lee Westwood FP at 22 at SportsSpread for 0.5 pts. M/U 19

Is Westwood back? That is the big question at the start of this new season. However, looking back at his renaissance last year he had two wins, and these were followed by finishes of a MC and a 13th after the first then no top 30 finishes in the remaining four European events last year. Also, note that even in Westwood's great years he was always known as a slow starter. He was a 4/1 favourite on a Asian PGA Tour event on his first outing of 1999 and missed the cut. Remember this was in a low quality field when he was on the top of his game. Afterwards, he admitted that he is very rusty at the start of the year. I believe he is well worth a bet at the price. Note though he is 23-26 elsewhere so you may have to accept 23 although that is still ok.

Bet 3 - Sell Bradley Dredge FP at 30 at either Cantor Sports or Spreadex for 0.5 pts. M/U 50

Dredge has played 5 events in the last 3 seasons in S Africa. His worst finish is 22nd. He played on the course in last year's open and finished 19th. Dredge would be priced around this price in bigger tour events with a far better depth of talent. So with proven local form 30 seems a little too high and must be traded.

Bet 4 - Sell Paul McGinley FP at 35 at Cantor Sports  for 0.5 pts. M/U 29
McGinley is an enigma. Excellent from tee to green, then constantly struggles with the flat stick. However, his record on SA greens seems better. Albeit from only 6 events this century, he has averaged under 17 for FP make-ups. With a price this week as high as i have ever seen McGinley outside the really big events then we definitely have a little value by selling at 35.

Bet 5 - Sell Justin Rose FP at 24 at IG Sport  for 0.5 pts. M/U 24.5

Rose has missed one cut in 11 events in the same time span as McGinley. Of the other 10 attempts he has posted 6 top 10s including 2 firsts and 2 seconds. Exemplary record in his place of birth and a far better bet for an outright win than players being priced much lower by the bookies.

Bet 6 - Sell Colin Montgomerie FP at 26 at IG Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U 19

For all Monty's problems recently there is no way he should be 26-29 in this field. A negative is that he never plays in this area but is this year in a bid for Ryder Cup points. The course set up though is good for his particular style and 26 is worth the risk.

Bet 7 - Sell Hennie Otto FP at 30 at IG Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U 19

This trade is on a player who was also 17th last year, finished a very respectable 10th in the Open last year (leader R1) and was 2nd in the season opening Hong Kong Open won by Harrington just before Christmas. Once again a good price that should be a couple of points lower at least.

Bet 8 - Sell Andrew Coltart FP at 33 at IG Sport for 0.5 pts. M/U 50

Final trade on a player who, once again, has respectable form in S Africa. Also it is noticeable from previous year's form figures that Coltart is usually faster out of the blocks than most others. 33 is a good price as i had him in as a sell at anything above 30

Post Round 2 Trades

Bet 9 - Sell Brett Rumford over Craig Lile 18H match bet at 2 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. M/U -19

This is a case to me of the favourite being favourite as punters over here are more likely to have heard of him. Lile though is a home player, has been top 5 in his last 2 SA Tour events and is a regular US Nationwide tour player. Rumford won a Euro tour event last year but that was in a very weak field and has generally disappointed in Europe. I would hazard a guess Lile is favourite with local South African firms.

>>> Good result in this 2 ball with Lile getting into the last pairing for R4 with a solid round, staying around 3 strokes ahead of Rumford for most of the round.

Overall Summary.

A case of what might have been with some of the trades. Oosthuizen finished 7, 6 to go from what would have ended up being Top 15, had he finished par par, to outside the Top 30. Monty and Otto would have been big wins had they not imploded on one round, both still though were good wins. Coltart and Dredge were disappointing, Rose and Westwood finishing roughly round their initial forecast and finally McGinley done well to finish where he was from a horrendous start.