South African Airways Open

Pre Round Four Trades (Summary: Disappointing Sunday for the 2nd week in a row. Van der Walt played poorly on R4 so Havret ended up being our best result on the week. Some decisions to close worked and some didn't but I believe that we traded at the correct figures. By continuing this policy when it is value to do so should see us record more winning weeks than losing and so far, we have yet to record a negative week.) Profit on this event = 14.62 Pts.

Buy Darren Clarke FP for 0.5 pts at 18 with IG Sport M/U 5.5, Loss 6.25 Pts
Closing this bet out before the finish. With Clarke getting into the weekend with a 25 ft putt for an eagle, then shooting 67 today to get into the Top 20, the firms expect sellers so we will go against the masses and close it out at a value price. He may go on to even greater things tomorrow but he is just as likely to go backwards as well. 21 is about his correct price.

Buy Marcel Siem FP for 0.5 pts at 42 with IG Sport M/U 36, Loss 3 Pts
This may be a harder one to convince FP players with, but I believe that even although Siem is an original sell at 27.2, it is value to take a 7.4pt loss before R4. With the scoreboard as it currently is, Siem should be higher than the 42 you can currently buy at. He may go on to shoot really low and make the original bet a profit but on average he wouldn't clear 42 from his current level. But we are betting properly by taking a loss just now however hard that is to take and however harder it may seem tomorrow if he does have a good day.

Pre Round Three Trades (Summary: Of the three closures Maritz and Edfors look like a 50 M/U whereas Howell could now win. Frost and Siem look like a max M/U but Clarke has come from a missed putt to be out of the weekend to now, a potential top 10. Van Der Walt and Havret are still top 10 and the remainder are ok at roughly where we started trading them.)

Buy Johan Edfors FP for 0.5 Pts at 32 with IG Sport M/U 28, Loss 2 Pts
Buy David Howell FP for 0.5 Pts at 23 with IG Sport M/U 9.5, Loss 6.75 Pts
Buy Martin Maritz FP for 0.5 Pts at 32 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 9 Pts
Firstly, I recommend closing three of the earlier trades basically at break-even (before commission). It was apparent in the first two days that players found it easier in the morning than the afternoon. With that in mind I think the early starters tomorrow (including Siem and Clarke) should possibly get the best of course conditions. I have priced these players up all about 3 points higher than the quotes on offer at IG, so with the additional course conditions view I think it is a good trade to close out. We may live to regret it but at this point in the week I think it is the safest option.

Buy David Frost FP for 0.5 Pts at 28 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 11 Pts
77 players have made the weekend and at Tied 45th and 9 behind the leader, Frost has a lot to do. Frost last week qualified for this years' Open at St Andrews but has failed to convert the birdies so far this week. At the price, like those above, it seems a few points too low.

Buy James Kingston FP for 0.5 Pts at 20 with IG Sport M/U 5.5, Loss 7.25 Pts
Tied 17th currently, Kingston was 3rd here three years ago, and may feel he is prime position to attack this weekend. None of the "name" players are out of this though and at 20 he is worthy of an interest at the half way stage.

Buy Darren Fichardt FP for 0.5 Pts at 28 with Sporting Index M/U 36, Profit 4 Pts
Final bet going into the weekend on Fichardt. Much the same reasons as the closing bets. 28 is low for a player in Tied 28th with 16 other players and a further 30 within 3 shots.
 

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: We have lost one player at the cut, Wall through a withdrawal but we also nearly lost Clarke due to some very poor play in R2. Van Der Walt and Havret are Top 5 and all the others who struggled yesterday are inside the cut by a few shots. Marcel Siem however started today with a 9 and had a double bogey later on as well. He is just inside the cut line.)

Buy Charl Schwartzel FP for 0.5 Pts at 13 with Sporting Index M/U 2.5, Loss 5.75 Pts
A play on price here and the possibility of a stronger wind in the afternoon in Durban. 13 is quite low considering we are only thru Day 1. With most of the major names in this event still fairly likely to make the weekend Charl should possibly be as high as 17 or 18.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Disappointing start with Wall withdrawing after 6 holes. After that the early starters did admirably for us, with both Siem and Havret -3 and VD Walt -6. However, into the afternoon, Edfors, Maritz and Howell struggled.)

Sell Johan Edfors FP for 0.5 pts at 35 with IG Sport M/U 28, Profit 3.5 Pts
Edfors was 14th before Christmas in the Dunhill Champs in South Africa, his 2nd Top 20 in a row on this Tour. He had a 9th in Madrid in 04 as his best result in Europe in 2004. He has really struggled but his results, albeit sparse, on this Tour suggest he may do better than his general average worldwide which isn't that much bigger than this price. Edfors is infamous for what happened in R3 in Madrid last year. He was leading with a hole to play in his third round, but then was involved in controversy when it was suspected that his ball was picked up by a spectator in the trees. Because nobody owned up to it and nobody said they had seen it the tour's senior referee Andy McFee ruled it a lost ball and Edfors went back to the tee and double-bogeyed the hole. From leader (needing to be top 2 to retain his card) he fell back to 9th.

Sell Darren Clarke FP for 0.5 pts at 18 with IG Sport M/U 5.5, Profit 6.25 Pts
18 at IG by all accounts was dropped to 15 almost immediately but has since strangely went back to it's original price.
Clarke is priced up in the mid teens on the information that he hasn't played much golf due to his Wife being seriously ill. He has stated publicly that any winnings will be donated to the Tsunami appeal so my take on that is that he is here giving this event his full 100% attention. Without these two pieces of information Clarke would be shorter on FP's and arguably shorter than the 6/1 he is on fixed odds. 5 Top 10's in 7 events on this tour in 6 years would suggest that our price is value, even although it is very short. In a field that is bereft of any real quality Clarke wouldn't need to be at 100% to beat this quote with ease.

Sell Gregory Havret FP for 0.5 pts at 34 with IG Sport M/U 2.5, Profit 15.75 Pts
Havret has a 2nd place almost a year ago in the Dunhill Champs at Houghton. More recently he has posted 2 Top 20's in the Far East before Christmas. He has a good enough Top 20 % record (over 20%) to make this bet value. A lot of those Top 20's would have been in better fields than what he has to take on this week.

Sell Tjaart Van Der Walt FP for 0.5 pts at 34 with IG Sport M/U 9.5, Profit 12.25 Pts
Tjaart spent most of 04' in the US, mainly on the Nationwide, but he also played 10 times on the main tour. He only posted one Top 25 at the Byron Nelson though. Back in South Africa he has a far better record. Since the turn of the century he has played in 21 events. 8 Top 10s and only 4 missed cuts would imply 34 is too high a price with the only firm offering a price. Tjaart was 5th on this course back in the 90's but in two events since has finished down the field.

Sell Anthony Wall FP for 0.5 pts at 34 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Loss 8 Pts (WD)
Anthony Wall would probably prefer it he was at Houghton this week with a record of 1/5/5/mc in his last 4 visits, it is far better than anything he does anywhere else. However, his record in Durban is ok too. 17th and 44th in two visits isn't worth writing home about but we are only backing him to beat 34 and he does seem to generally like South African golf. At 34, he is a couple of points too high in my opinion.

Sell David Howell FP for 0.5 pts at 20.9 with Spreadfair M/U 9.5, Profit 5.42 Pts
Howell had a big 2004 although with no wins. Ten Top 10's is a cracking return of the year and he is a player more appealing to FP than to outright wins. He was 9th at Durban but way back in 1998, otherwise his SA record is good, with four Top 25's in his last five events played.

Sell Marcel Siem FP for 0.5 pts at 27.2 with Spreadfair M/U 36, Loss 4.4 Pts
Siem is another with good vibes in this country. 1st and 6th in two events in 04, Siem then went on to have four more Top 10's during the year. In a fairly poor quality event he should be around 24/25, therefore over 27 is a fair gain.

Sell Martin Maritz FP for 0.5 pts at 30.7 with Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 9.15 Pts
Final bet before R1 and its on Maritz who has a great record at home. 14 top 25's in 21 events suggests on numbers alone that 30.7 is too big. His Durban effort in that 21 is a 9th in 02'. Like a few of our picks Maritz is more suited to this country so we have tour form working for us. It is a fair number of trades to start with but this will probably mean we do not trade as many in running.